{
  "title": "NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 26, 2019",
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  "summary": "The United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and methodology",
      "content": "- The United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).\n- Analytical approach: a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium model is used to assess five key provisions in the new agreement.\n- Key provisions analyzed:\n  - tighter rules of origin in the automotive sector,\n  - tighter rules of origin in the textiles and apparel sectors,\n  - more liberalized agricultural trade,\n  - other trade facilitation measures,\n  - (implicitly) interactions with U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum and Canadian and Mexican import surtaxes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Aggregate welfare and GDP impacts:\n  - The provisions together would generate modest aggregate gains in terms of welfare.\n  - The effect on real GDP is negligible.\n- Sectoral trade impacts:\n  - Provisions would adversely affect trade in the automotive sector.\n  - Provisions would adversely affect trade in the textiles and apparel sectors.\n- Drivers of welfare change:\n  - Welfare gains are mostly driven by improved goods market access.\n- Interaction with tariffs and surtaxes:\n  - The welfare benefits from USMCA would be greatly enhanced with:\n    - the elimination of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico, and\n    - the elimination of the Canadian and Mexican import surtaxes imposed after the U.S. tariffs were put in place."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations (implicit from results)",
      "content": "- To maximize welfare benefits from USMCA:\n  - Consider eliminating U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico.\n  - Consider eliminating the Canadian and Mexican import surtaxes imposed after the U.S. tariffs were put in place.\n- Be mindful that tighter rules of origin in automotive and textiles/apparel can reduce trade in those sectors despite modest aggregate welfare gains."
    },
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      "content": "- Authors: Mary E. Burfisher, Frederic Lambert, Troy D Matheson\n- Date: March 26, 2019\n- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2019/073\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498303286.001\n- Pages: 34\n\nSource: NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained? — IMF Working Paper No. 2019/073.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/26/nafta-to-usmca-what-is-gained-46680"
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    "Authors: Mary E. Burfisher, Frederic Lambert, Troy D Matheson",
    "Published: March 26, 2019",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498303286.001",
    "The United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).",
    "Analytical approach: a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium model is used to assess five key provisions in the new agreement.",
    "Key provisions analyzed:",
    "Aggregate welfare and GDP impacts:",
    "Sectoral trade impacts:",
    "Drivers of welfare change:",
    "Interaction with tariffs and surtaxes:",
    "To maximize welfare benefits from USMCA:",
    "Be mindful that tighter rules of origin in automotive and textiles/apparel can reduce trade in those sectors despite modest aggregate welfare gains.",
    "Authors: Mary E. Burfisher, Frederic Lambert, Troy D Matheson",
    "Date: March 26, 2019",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2019/073",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498303286.001",
    "Pages: 34",
    "**Working Paper**"
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