{
  "title": "Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 23, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908/index.md",
  "summary": "We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Research question and approach",
      "content": "- Objective: Explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes.\n- Novel approach: Analysis based on revisions to professional forecasts.\n- Sample and period: revisions over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- When employment rises unexpectedly:\n  - Forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one.\n  - Forecasters also expect a strong rise in labor force participation.\n  - These responses suggest more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed.\n- Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand (characterized by inflation rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly):\n  - Come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation.\n  - Suggest positive hysteresis in labor markets.\n- Forecast evaluation:\n  - Tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject coverage and keywords (as used in the source)",
      "content": "- Subjects: Employment, Labor, Labor force, Labor force participation, Labor markets, Unemployment rate.\n- Keywords: business cycles; current-period employment; Employment; employment revision; Global; Hysteresis; Labor force; Labor force participation; labor market; labor market fluctuation; labor market outcome; labor market variable; Labor markets; labor-market persistence; monetary policy; Unemployment rate; WP.\n\nIMF Working Paper No. 2019/114 by John C Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh (May 23, 2019).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: John C Bluedorn, Daniel Leigh",
    "Published: May 23, 2019",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498315692.001",
    "Objective: Explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes.",
    "Novel approach: Analysis based on revisions to professional forecasts.",
    "Sample and period: revisions over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies.",
    "When employment rises unexpectedly:",
    "Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand (characterized by inflation rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly):",
    "Forecast evaluation:",
    "Subjects: Employment, Labor, Labor force, Labor force participation, Labor markets, Unemployment rate.",
    "Keywords: business cycles; current-period employment; Employment; employment revision; Global; Hysteresis; Labor force; Labor force participation; labor market; labor market fluctuation; labor market outcome; labor market variable; Labor markets; labor-market persistence; monetary policy; Unemployment rate; WP.",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2019/wpiea2019114.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2019/wpiea2019114.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2019/wpiea2019114.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/05/23/hysteresis-in-labor-markets-evidence-from-professional-long-term-forecasts-46908/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-18T15:17:49.860Z"
}