{
  "title": "Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 8, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/11/08/repeated-use-of-imf-supported-programs-determinants-and-forecasting-48597",
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  "summary": "This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and research question",
      "content": "- Paper studies determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements approved between 1952 and 2012.\n- Context: IMF’s revolving resources are intended for temporary support to address balance of payments problems; repeated use has often been viewed as program failure.\n- Methods: Probit models and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical findings",
      "content": "- Country-specific variables with significant explanatory power for repeated use:\n  - Growth\n  - The current account balance\n  - The international reserves position\n  - The institutional framework\n- IMF-specific and program-specific variables:\n  - A country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use.\n- Forecasting performance:\n  - The approach has predictive power for repeated use.\n  - Exact forecasting remains challenging."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications",
      "content": "- Results could be useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.\n- Identifying key country-specific indicators (growth, current account balance, international reserves, institutional framework) can inform risk assessment and program design to limit repeated reliance on IMF resources.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/11/08/repeated-use-of-imf-supported-programs-determinants-and-forecasting-48597"
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    "Authors: Martin Iseringhausen, Mwanza Nkusu, Wellian Wiranto",
    "Published: November 8, 2019",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513511689.001",
    "Paper studies determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements approved between 1952 and 2012.",
    "Context: IMF’s revolving resources are intended for temporary support to address balance of payments problems; repeated use has often been viewed as program failure.",
    "Methods: Probit models and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise.",
    "Country-specific variables with significant explanatory power for repeated use:",
    "IMF-specific and program-specific variables:",
    "Forecasting performance:",
    "Results could be useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.",
    "Identifying key country-specific indicators (growth, current account balance, international reserves, institutional framework) can inform risk assessment and program design to limit repeated reliance on IMF resources.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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