## Bridging the Mobile Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costing under Demographic Change and Urbanization

_IMF Working Papers, November 15, 2019_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Emre Alper, Michal Miktus
- Published: November 15, 2019
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513519197.001

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### Summary and purpose
- Digital connectivity through modern cellular network technologies is projected to play a key role for the Future of Work in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
- The paper estimates the cost of introducing a full-scale 4G network by 2025 in SSA and an operable 5G network by 2040.
- The analysis adapts the costing model of Lombardo (2019) to account for significant demographic transformation and rapid urbanization in SSA.

### Methodology and data sources
- Costing approach: adaptation of Lombardo (2019) costing model.
- Population and spatial data: WorldPop and GADM databases.
- Population projections: UN’s medium-variant population projections.
- Geographic granularity: projected population densities at the highest level of administrative division for each SSA country for the years 2025 and 2040.

### Key quantitative findings
- Full 4G connectivity required capital and operational costs: US$14 billion by 2025.
- 5G connectivity costs (conditional on having 4G in place by 2025): US$57 billion in 2040.
- Affordability metric (median basis):
  - 4G: 8.4 percent of annual subscriber income by 2025.
  - 5G: 4.9 percent of annual subscriber income by 2040.

### Interpretation and implications
- The infrastructure costs are substantial but decline as a share of subscriber income from 8.4 percent (4G, 2025) to 4.9 percent (5G, 2040) on a median basis.
- Having network infrastructure in place is necessary but not sufficient to bridge the mobile Digital Divide.

### Policy recommendations and non-cost barriers
- Complement infrastructure deployment with policies addressing:
  - Affordability of services for subscribers.
  - Knowledge gaps that limit adoption and effective use of digital services.

### Publication metadata
- Authors: Emre Alper, Michal Miktus
- Publication type: IMF Working Paper No. 2019/249
- Pages: 40
- Issue: 249
- Volume: 2019
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513519197.001
- ISBN: 9781513519197
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Publication date: November 15, 2019

*Source: "Bridging the Mobile Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costing under Demographic Change and Urbanization", Emre Alper and Michal Miktus, IMF Working Papers 2019, 249 (2019).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/11/15/bridging-the-mobile-digital-divide-in-sub-saharan-africa-costing-under-demographic-change-48793_