{
  "title": "Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 17, 2020",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932/index.md",
  "summary": "This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Using a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast highe",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of central findings",
      "content": "- The paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth in 32 advanced and emerging market economies.\n- Current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead.\n- House-prices-at-risk predict future downside risks to economic growth and financial crises."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and evidence",
      "content": "- Combines a macro-model with predictive quantile regressions to estimate downside risks to house prices.\n- Uses house-prices-at-risk as a metric linking house price downside scenarios to subsequent macroeconomic and financial stability outcomes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical relationships",
      "content": "- House price overvaluation → higher house-prices-at-risk.\n- Excessive credit growth → higher house-prices-at-risk.\n- Tighter financial conditions → higher house-prices-at-risk.\n- Elevated house-prices-at-risk → increased future downside risks to economic growth.\n- Elevated house-prices-at-risk → higher probability of financial crises."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and effectiveness",
      "content": "- Tightening macroprudential policy is identified as the most effective intervention across both short and longer horizons.\n- Loosening conventional monetary policy reduces short term downside risks only in advanced economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Keywords and subject focus",
      "content": "- Subject: Financial markets, Financial sector policy and analysis, Money, National accounts, Prices\n- Keywords include: Credit booms; Early Warning Models; Emerging and frontier financial markets; financial crisis; Global; Growth at Risk; house price; house price data; house price distribution; house price imbalance; house price momentum; house price overvaluation; house price vulnerability; House Prices; house prices valuation; Housing; Housing prices; Macroprudential Policy; misalignment ratio; monetary policy; Monetary Policy; overvaluation metrics; Panel Quantile Regression; price dynamics; real GDP; valuation variable; WP\n\nPredicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability, IMF Working Paper.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Tobias Adrian, Andrea Deghi, Mitsuru Katagiri, Sohaib Shahid, Nico Valckx",
    "Published: January 17, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513525839.001",
    "The paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth in 32 advanced and emerging market economies.",
    "Current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead.",
    "House-prices-at-risk predict future downside risks to economic growth and financial crises.",
    "Combines a macro-model with predictive quantile regressions to estimate downside risks to house prices.",
    "Uses house-prices-at-risk as a metric linking house price downside scenarios to subsequent macroeconomic and financial stability outcomes.",
    "House price overvaluation → higher house-prices-at-risk.",
    "Excessive credit growth → higher house-prices-at-risk.",
    "Tighter financial conditions → higher house-prices-at-risk.",
    "Elevated house-prices-at-risk → increased future downside risks to economic growth.",
    "Elevated house-prices-at-risk → higher probability of financial crises.",
    "Tightening macroprudential policy is identified as the most effective intervention across both short and longer horizons.",
    "Loosening conventional monetary policy reduces short term downside risks only in advanced economies.",
    "Subject: Financial markets, Financial sector policy and analysis, Money, National accounts, Prices",
    "Keywords include: Credit booms; Early Warning Models; Emerging and frontier financial markets; financial crisis; Global; Growth at Risk; house price; house price data; house price distribution; house price imbalance; house price momentum; house price overvaluation; house price vulnerability; House Prices; house prices valuation; Housing; Housing prices; Macroprudential Policy; misalignment ratio; monetary policy; Monetary Policy; overvaluation metrics; Panel Quantile Regression; price dynamics; real GDP; valuation variable; WP",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020011-print-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020011-print-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020011-print-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/01/17/predicting-downside-risks-to-house-prices-and-macro-financial-stability-48932/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-18T16:33:06.140Z"
}