{
  "title": "Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 7, 2020",
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  "summary": "We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques.",
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    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Authors: Jiaqian Chen, Lucyna Gornicka\n- Publication date: February 7, 2020\n- Core finding: A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of the output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than usual filtering techniques.\n- Additional outcome: The structural VAR produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation.\n- Cautionary note: Results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methods and Technical Findings",
      "content": "- Models applied: A range of models to U.K. data, including a structural vector autoregression (structural VAR) and usual filtering techniques.\n- Advantages of structural VAR reported:\n  - Improved estimates of the output gap.\n  - Better real time properties.\n  - Lower sensitivity to temporary shocks.\n  - Smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation compared with filtering techniques."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Implications and Recommendations",
      "content": "- Primary policy implication: Exercise caution when using output gap estimates as the basis for policy decisions.\n- Rationale: Even with improved estimation from structural VARs, uncertainty and sensitivity considerations warrant cautious interpretation for policy use.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/02/07/measuring-output-gap-is-it-worth-your-time-48978"
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    "Authors: Jiaqian Chen, Lucyna Gornicka",
    "Published: February 7, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513527864.001",
    "Authors: Jiaqian Chen, Lucyna Gornicka",
    "Publication date: February 7, 2020",
    "Core finding: A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of the output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than usual filtering techniques.",
    "Additional outcome: The structural VAR produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation.",
    "Cautionary note: Results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.",
    "Models applied: A range of models to U.K. data, including a structural vector autoregression (structural VAR) and usual filtering techniques.",
    "Advantages of structural VAR reported:",
    "Primary policy implication: Exercise caution when using output gap estimates as the basis for policy decisions.",
    "Rationale: Even with improved estimation from structural VARs, uncertainty and sensitivity considerations warrant cautious interpretation for policy use.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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