## Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked

_IMF Working Papers, May 29, 2020_

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**Canonical URL:** [Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/05/29/global-smartphones-sales-may-have-peaked-49361)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Joannes Mongardini, Aneta Radzikowski
- Published: May 29, 2020
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513545851.001

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### Key findings and summary
- Global smartphone sales may have peaked after reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016.
- Global smartphone sales have declined since 2016, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019.
- The paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales and finds that sales are likely to decline further.
- As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.

### Model and projections
- The authors develop a simple forecasting model for smartphone sales; model results indicate a continued decline in global smartphone sales (no specific numerical forecast figures provided on the page).
- Historical anchor: peak sales at nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016.
- Recent trade impact: smartphone sales trends contributed negatively to world trade in 2019.

### Trade and structural implications
- Shift in tech companies' revenue models toward embedded services: cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services.
- Implication: global trade effects may increasingly favor services exports rather than merchandise exports.
- Distributional effect: services-export gains are likely concentrated mostly in advanced economies.

### Publication and metadata
- Authors: Joannes Mongardini, Aneta Radzikowski
- Publication date: May 29, 2020
- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2020/070
- Pages: 20
- Volume: 2020
- Issue: 070
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513545851.001
- ISBN: 9781513545851
- ISSN: 1018-5941

*Source: IMF Working Paper “Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked” (May 29, 2020) by Joannes Mongardini and Aneta Radzikowski.*

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- **Working Paper**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/05/29/global-smartphones-sales-may-have-peaked-49361_