{
  "title": "The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 26, 2020",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/06/26/the-macroeconomic-costs-of-conflict-49515",
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  "summary": "Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic impacts on GDP and consumption",
      "content": "- GDP per capita is about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset.\n- Private consumption falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset and overwhelmingly drives the GDP per capita decline."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Trade effects",
      "content": "- Exports are estimated to be 58 percent lower ten years after conflict onset.\n- Imports are estimated to be 34 percent lower ten years after conflict onset.\n- Official trade experiences dramatic declines associated with conflict onset."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Refugee dynamics",
      "content": "- Conflict onset often induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run.\n- Conflict onset leads to relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Measurement and sample-definition considerations",
      "content": "- Conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population.\n- The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.\n\nIMF Working Paper by Natalija Novta and Evgenia Pugacheva, June 26, 2020 (Working Paper No. 2020/110).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/06/26/the-macroeconomic-costs-of-conflict-49515"
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    "Authors: Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva",
    "Published: June 26, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513547756.001",
    "GDP per capita is about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset.",
    "Private consumption falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset and overwhelmingly drives the GDP per capita decline.",
    "Exports are estimated to be 58 percent lower ten years after conflict onset.",
    "Imports are estimated to be 34 percent lower ten years after conflict onset.",
    "Official trade experiences dramatic declines associated with conflict onset.",
    "Conflict onset often induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run.",
    "Conflict onset leads to relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run.",
    "Conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population.",
    "The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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