{
  "title": "A Framework for Assessing the Costs of Pension Reform Reversals",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, July 17, 2020",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/07/17/a-framework-for-assessing-the-costs-of-pension-reform-reversals-49567",
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  "summary": "Several European countries are currently considering reversing parts of their pension reforms that were adopted previously to improve sustainability. In this paper we present a framework that allows us to quantify the macroeconomic and fiscal costs of such reversals.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Authors: Daniel Baksa, Zsuzsa Munkacsi, Carolin Nerlich\n- Date: July 17, 2020\n- Core objective: Present a framework to quantify the macroeconomic and fiscal costs of reversing previously adopted pension reforms.\n- High-level conclusion: Undoing past pension reforms would generate substantial adverse macroeconomic costs and could pose challenges for fiscal sustainability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and Model",
      "content": "- Approach: Integrate country-specific information from the latest Ageing Report into a dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations.\n- Model performance: The model replicates the Ageing Report’s pension expenditure projections very well.\n- Analytical steps:\n  - Calculate macroeconomic impact of additional pension reforms needed to contain public debt pressures arising from population ageing.\n  - Calculate costs of reform reversals."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Country Cases",
      "content": "- Focus countries: Germany and Slovakia\n- Role of cases: Used to illustrate model calibration and quantify country-specific macroeconomic and fiscal effects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings and Quantitative Points",
      "content": "- Reversing past pension reforms generates substantial adverse macroeconomic costs.\n- Reform reversals could pose challenges for fiscal sustainability.\n- Technical fidelity: Model replicates Ageing Report pension expenditure projections (no numerical deviation provided on the page)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subjects: Aging, Expenditure, Labor, Pension reform, Pension spending, Population and demographics, Public debt, Retirement\n- Keywords: adverse impact, Ageing Report, Aging, benefit ratio, contribution rate, Europe, labour force, old-age dependency ratio, overlapping generations model, Pension reform, Pension spending, population ageing, public debt-to-GDP ratio, public pension, reform reversals, Retirement, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/07/17/a-framework-for-assessing-the-costs-of-pension-reform-reversals-49567"
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    "Authors: Daniel Baksa, Zsuzsa Munkacsi, Carolin Nerlich",
    "Published: July 17, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513550497.001",
    "Authors: Daniel Baksa, Zsuzsa Munkacsi, Carolin Nerlich",
    "Date: July 17, 2020",
    "Core objective: Present a framework to quantify the macroeconomic and fiscal costs of reversing previously adopted pension reforms.",
    "High-level conclusion: Undoing past pension reforms would generate substantial adverse macroeconomic costs and could pose challenges for fiscal sustainability.",
    "Approach: Integrate country-specific information from the latest Ageing Report into a dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations.",
    "Model performance: The model replicates the Ageing Report’s pension expenditure projections very well.",
    "Analytical steps:",
    "Focus countries: Germany and Slovakia",
    "Role of cases: Used to illustrate model calibration and quantify country-specific macroeconomic and fiscal effects.",
    "Reversing past pension reforms generates substantial adverse macroeconomic costs.",
    "Reform reversals could pose challenges for fiscal sustainability.",
    "Technical fidelity: Model replicates Ageing Report pension expenditure projections (no numerical deviation provided on the page).",
    "Subjects: Aging, Expenditure, Labor, Pension reform, Pension spending, Population and demographics, Public debt, Retirement",
    "Keywords: adverse impact, Ageing Report, Aging, benefit ratio, contribution rate, Europe, labour force, old-age dependency ratio, overlapping generations model, Pension reform, Pension spending, population ageing, public debt-to-GDP ratio, public pension, reform reversals, Retirement, WP",
    "**Working Paper**"
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