{
  "title": "A Framework for Estimating Health Spending in Response to COVID-19",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, July 24, 2020",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/07/24/a-framework-for-estimating-health-spending-in-response-to-covid-19-49550",
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  "summary": "We estimate the additional health spending necessary to treat COVID-19 patients. We expand a Susceptible Infected Recovered model to project the number of people requiring hospitalization, use information about healthcare costs by country, and make assumptions about capacity constraints in the healt",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Objective: Estimate the additional health spending necessary to treat COVID-19 patients.\n- Approach: Expand a Susceptible Infected Recovered model to project the number of people requiring hospitalization; combine projected demand with information about healthcare costs by country and assumptions about capacity constraints in the health sector.\n- Core comparative scenarios:\n  - No social distancing and lockdowns.\n  - Capacity-constrained health systems with effective social distancing and quarantine."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Modeling and assumptions",
      "content": "- Epidemiological model: Extended Susceptible Infected Recovered framework to project hospitalizations.\n- Costing: Use country-level information about healthcare costs to translate projected hospitalizations into spending needs.\n- Capacity constraints: Explicit assumptions about health sector capacity determine whether systems must expand to meet demand or whether unmet demand affects outcomes (fatalities and spending)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key quantitative findings",
      "content": "- Health system expansion requirement (no social distancing/lockdowns):\n  - \"Countries would need to expand health systems ten-fold, on average, to assist all COVID-19 patients in need of hospitalization.\"\n- Global additional health spending estimates:\n  - Without effective distancing: additional spending range of $0.6–1 trillion globally.\n  - With capacity constraints and effective social distancing and quarantine: additional spending reduced to $130–231 billion globally.\n- Fatality rate estimates (average):\n  - Without distancing: fatality rate of 1.2 percent, on average.\n  - With capacity constraints plus effective social distancing and quarantine: fatality rate of 0.2 percent, on average."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and interpretation",
      "content": "- Social distancing and quarantine substantially reduce both additional health spending and average fatality rates:\n  - Spending impact: from $0.6–1 trillion down to $130–231 billion.\n  - Fatality impact: from 1.2 percent down to 0.2 percent.\n- Capacity planning: Without mitigation measures, health systems would face an average ten-fold increase in required capacity to meet hospitalization needs, implying large-scale, rapid expansion of infrastructure, personnel, and resources would be necessary.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/07/24/a-framework-for-estimating-health-spending-in-response-to-covid-19-49550"
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    "Authors: Paolo Dudine, Klaus-Peter Hellwig, Samir Jahan",
    "Published: July 24, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513550220.001",
    "Objective: Estimate the additional health spending necessary to treat COVID-19 patients.",
    "Approach: Expand a Susceptible Infected Recovered model to project the number of people requiring hospitalization; combine projected demand with information about healthcare costs by country and assumptions about capacity constraints in the health sector.",
    "Core comparative scenarios:",
    "Epidemiological model: Extended Susceptible Infected Recovered framework to project hospitalizations.",
    "Costing: Use country-level information about healthcare costs to translate projected hospitalizations into spending needs.",
    "Capacity constraints: Explicit assumptions about health sector capacity determine whether systems must expand to meet demand or whether unmet demand affects outcomes (fatalities and spending).",
    "Health system expansion requirement (no social distancing/lockdowns):",
    "Global additional health spending estimates:",
    "Fatality rate estimates (average):",
    "Social distancing and quarantine substantially reduce both additional health spending and average fatality rates:",
    "Capacity planning: Without mitigation measures, health systems would face an average ten-fold increase in required capacity to meet hospitalization needs, implying large-scale, rapid expansion of infrastructure, personnel, and resources would be necessary.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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