{
  "title": "Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 21, 2020",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/10/21/exiting-from-lockdowns-early-evidence-from-reopenings-in-europe-49826",
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  "summary": "European authorities introduced stringent lockdown measures in early 2020 to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. As the first wave of infection curves flattened and the outbreak appeared controlled, most countries started to reopen their economies albeit using diverse strategies.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Novel database and heterogeneity in reopening strategies",
      "content": "- Introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave.\n- Documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures.\n- Emphasizes heterogeneity across countries and sectors in reopening choices and timing."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Mobility recovery versus infection outcomes",
      "content": "- Reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections.\n- The paper characterizes this as a trade-off between restoring mobility and the risk of increased infections."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical findings on infection dynamics",
      "content": "- The increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates.\n- A given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that:\n  - started reopening earlier on the infection curve, or\n  - opened all sectors at a fast pace in a relatively short time.\n- Opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open.\n- The amplification effect appears heterogeneous across sectors."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Research scope and classification",
      "content": "- Subject areas: COVID-19, Education, Expenditure, Health, Population and demographics, Public expenditure review.\n- Keywords include: COVID-19, effect of reopening, Europe, infection amplification risk, infection curve, infection dynamics, infection evolution, infection situation, infection variable, infection-death curve, Lockdowns, outcome variable, Pandemics, Public expenditure review, reopening policy, WP.\n\nIMF Working Paper No. 2020/218, October 21, 2020; authors: Jeffrey R. Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Patnam, Sebastian Weber.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/10/21/exiting-from-lockdowns-early-evidence-from-reopenings-in-europe-49826"
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    "Authors: Jeffrey R. Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Patnam, Sebastian Weber",
    "Published: October 21, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513559704.001",
    "Introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave.",
    "Documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures.",
    "Emphasizes heterogeneity across countries and sectors in reopening choices and timing.",
    "Reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections.",
    "The paper characterizes this as a trade-off between restoring mobility and the risk of increased infections.",
    "The increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates.",
    "A given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that:",
    "Opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open.",
    "The amplification effect appears heterogeneous across sectors.",
    "Subject areas: COVID-19, Education, Expenditure, Health, Population and demographics, Public expenditure review.",
    "Keywords include: COVID-19, effect of reopening, Europe, infection amplification risk, infection curve, infection dynamics, infection evolution, infection situation, infection variable, infection-death curve, Lockdowns, outcome variable, Pandemics, Public expenditure review, reopening policy, WP.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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