{
  "title": "An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 8, 2020",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784/index.md",
  "summary": "Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy.\n- Research gap: prior literature documents economic consequences of climate change but research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent; this paper aims to fill that gap.\n- Objective: estimate the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on the probability of sovereign debt default.\n- Sample: 116 countries over the period 1995–2017.\n- Main conclusion: climate change vulnerability and resilience have significant effects on the probability of sovereign debt default, especially among low-income countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings",
      "content": "- Countries with greater vulnerability to climate change face a higher likelihood of sovereign debt default compared to more climate resilient countries.\n- The effect is particularly pronounced among low-income countries.\n- Findings are robust across:\n  - Alternative measures of sovereign debt default.\n  - Different model specifications.\n  - Different estimation methodologies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject Areas and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Climate change, Debt default, Environment, External debt, Financial sector development, Public debt, Real effective exchange rates\n- Keywords: Climate change, climate change face, climate change pay, climate change resilience, climate change vulnerability, Debt default, government debt, resilience, South America, South Asia, sovereign default, Sub-Saharan Africa, vulnerability, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Serhan Cevik, João Tovar Jalles",
    "Published: November 8, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560403.001",
    "Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy.",
    "Research gap: prior literature documents economic consequences of climate change but research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent; this paper aims to fill that gap.",
    "Objective: estimate the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on the probability of sovereign debt default.",
    "Sample: 116 countries over the period 1995–2017.",
    "Main conclusion: climate change vulnerability and resilience have significant effects on the probability of sovereign debt default, especially among low-income countries.",
    "Countries with greater vulnerability to climate change face a higher likelihood of sovereign debt default compared to more climate resilient countries.",
    "The effect is particularly pronounced among low-income countries.",
    "Findings are robust across:",
    "Subject: Climate change, Debt default, Environment, External debt, Financial sector development, Public debt, Real effective exchange rates",
    "Keywords: Climate change, climate change face, climate change pay, climate change resilience, climate change vulnerability, Debt default, government debt, resilience, South America, South Asia, sovereign default, Sub-Saharan Africa, vulnerability, WP",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020231-print-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020231-print-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020231-print-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/an-apocalypse-foretold-climate-shocks-and-sovereign-defaults-49784/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-16T18:24:59.986Z"
}