{ "title": "Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives", "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 8, 2020", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730/index.md", "summary": "The debate among economists about an optimal growth recipe has been the subject of competing “narratives.” We identify four major growth narratives using the text analytics of IMF country reports over 1978-2019.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Key findings", "content": "- Four major growth narratives are identified using text analytics of IMF country reports over 1978-2019.\n- The narrative “Economic Structure” (services, manufacturing, and agriculture) has been on a secular decline.\n- The narrative “Structural Reforms” (competitiveness, transparency, and governance) has overshadowed “Economic Structure.”\n- The “Washington Consensus” (privatization and liberalization) exhibited a rise and fall pattern.\n- The “Washington Constellation,” a collection of disparate terms such as productivity, tourism, and inequality, has risen to dominance.\n- Growth theory concepts such as innovation, technology, and export policy have been marginal.\n- Industrial policy, once perceived positively, is making a comeback." }, { "heading": "Narratives identified", "content": "- Economic Structure: services, manufacturing, agriculture.\n- Structural Reforms: competitiveness, transparency, governance.\n- Washington Consensus: privatization, liberalization.\n- Washington Constellation: productivity, tourism, inequality, and many disparate terms." }, { "heading": "Trends over time", "content": "- Analysis period: 1978-2019.\n- Secular decline observed for the Economic Structure narrative across the sample.\n- Ascendancy of Structural Reforms relative to Economic Structure.\n- Rise and subsequent decline of the Washington Consensus narrative.\n- Growth in prevalence and dominance of the Washington Constellation terms.\n- Marginal occurrence of classical growth-theory vocabulary (innovation, technology, export policy).\n- Re-emergence of industrial policy terminology after a period of lower prominence." }, { "heading": "Implications and policy considerations", "content": "- Shifts in dominant narratives reflect changing emphases in policy advice and diagnostics across IMF country reports.\n- The dominance of plural and disparate terms (Washington Constellation) suggests diffusion of growth discourse beyond single coherent prescriptions.\n- The marginal role of explicit growth-theory terms (innovation, technology, export policy) indicates areas where technical discourse may be underrepresented in country reports.\n- The comeback of industrial policy terminology points to renewed policy interest and potential re-evaluation of previously sidelined instruments." }, { "heading": "Additional metadata (as reported in the source)", "content": "- Authors: Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov\n- Date: November 8, 2020\n- Pages: 28\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2020/228\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556864.001\n\nSource: Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives, Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov, November 8, 2020, IMF Working Papers No. 2020/228.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov", "Published: November 8, 2020", "Series: IMF Working Papers", "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556864.001", "Four major growth narratives are identified using text analytics of IMF country reports over 1978-2019.", "The narrative “Economic Structure” (services, manufacturing, and agriculture) has been on a secular decline.", "The narrative “Structural Reforms” (competitiveness, transparency, and governance) has overshadowed “Economic Structure.”", "The “Washington Consensus” (privatization and liberalization) exhibited a rise and fall pattern.", "The “Washington Constellation,” a collection of disparate terms such as productivity, tourism, and inequality, has risen to dominance.", "Growth theory concepts such as innovation, technology, and export policy have been marginal.", "Industrial policy, once perceived positively, is making a comeback.", "Economic Structure: services, manufacturing, agriculture.", "Structural Reforms: competitiveness, transparency, governance.", "Washington Consensus: privatization, liberalization.", "Washington Constellation: productivity, tourism, inequality, and many disparate terms.", "Analysis period: 1978-2019.", "Secular decline observed for the Economic Structure narrative across the sample.", "Ascendancy of Structural Reforms relative to Economic Structure.", "Rise and subsequent decline of the Washington Consensus narrative.", "Growth in prevalence and dominance of the Washington Constellation terms.", "Marginal occurrence of classical growth-theory vocabulary (innovation, technology, export policy).", "Re-emergence of industrial policy terminology after a period of lower prominence.", "Shifts in dominant narratives reflect changing emphases in policy advice and diagnostics across IMF country reports.", "The dominance of plural and disparate terms (Washington Constellation) suggests diffusion of growth discourse beyond single coherent prescriptions.", "The marginal role of explicit growth-theory terms (innovation, technology, export policy) indicates areas where technical discourse may be underrepresented in country reports.", "The comeback of industrial policy terminology points to renewed policy interest and potential re-evaluation of previously sidelined instruments.", "Authors: Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov", "Date: November 8, 2020", "Pages: 28", "Series: Working Paper No. 2020/228", "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556864.001", "**Working Paper**" ], "related": [ { "title": "Working Paper", "role": "paper", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020228-print-pdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020228-print-pdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020228-print-pdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/crouching-beliefs-hidden-biases-the-rise-and-fall-of-growth-narratives-49730/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-16T18:26:35.845Z" }