## Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns

_IMF Working Papers, November 8, 2020_

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**Canonical URL:** [Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/protecting-lives-and-livelihoods-with-early-and-tight-lockdowns-49866)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, Damiano Sandri
- Published: November 8, 2020
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560434.001

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### Summary
- Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, the paper shows the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns.
- Economic activity also contracted because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections.
- Lockdowns can substantially reduce COVID-19 infections, especially if introduced early in a country's epidemic.
- Despite short-term economic costs, lockdowns may pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing.
- Lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections, suggesting that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.

### Key Findings
- The economic contraction in the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic is attributable to both government-imposed lockdowns and voluntary social distancing triggered by higher infection rates.
- Early implementation of lockdowns substantially reduces COVID-19 infections.
- Marginal economic costs of lockdowns decrease as stringency or duration increases, while marginal health benefits (infections avoided) increase.
- Policy inference: tight, short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild, prolonged measures based on the pattern of decreasing marginal economic costs and increasing marginal benefits in infection reduction.

### Policy Recommendations and Implications
- Introduce lockdowns early in a country's epidemic to maximize infection reduction.
- Favor tight, short-lived lockdowns over mild, prolonged measures to balance economic costs and health benefits.
- Recognize that voluntary social distancing amplifies economic contractions when infections rise; controlling infections can thus mitigate voluntary reductions in economic activity and support a faster recovery.

### Methodology and Scope
- Evidence is derived from high-frequency proxies for economic activity across a large sample of countries.
- Timeframe emphasized: the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Main subjects include COVID-19, Economic growth, Economic recession, Health, Labor, National accounts, Private savings, Unemployment rate.

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- **Working Paper**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/08/protecting-lives-and-livelihoods-with-early-and-tight-lockdowns-49866_