{
  "title": "Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 13, 2020",
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  "summary": "Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve’s target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC’s target.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and main findings",
      "content": "- Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve’s target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC’s target.\n- The paper estimates long-run inflation expectations using a factor model that incorporates information from:\n  - professional forecasters,\n  - household and business surveys,\n  - the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).\n- Long-run inflation expectations have fallen notably in the past few years — to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below the FOMC’s target.\n- Evidence suggests that, even before the covid recession, the private sector viewed the economy as likely to suffer from persistent headwinds to inflation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and key concepts",
      "content": "- Uses a factor modeling approach to combine multiple information sources (forecasters, surveys, TIPS).\n- Incorporates concepts and terminology including:\n  - breakeven inflation series,\n  - inflation risk premium,\n  - no-arbitrage term structure model,\n  - yield curve,\n  - risk premia."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy relevance and implications",
      "content": "- Persistent low long-run inflation expectations imply concerns about the deanchoring of inflation from the FOMC’s target.\n- The findings are relevant for monetary policy, inflation targeting, liquidity considerations, and asset and liability management."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publication and metadata",
      "content": "- Author: Peter D. Williams\n- Publication date: November 13, 2020\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2020/240\n- Issue: 240\n- Volume: 2020\n- Pages: 25\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561158.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2020240\n- ISBN: 9781513561158\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Subjects and keywords include: Asset and liability management; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Liquidity; Monetary policy; National accounts; Oil prices; Prices; Return on investment; breakeven inflation series; CPI inflation; expectations survey; factor modeling; inflation risk premium; no-arbitrage term structure model; TIPS; yield curve.\n\nIMF Working Papers — Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses (Working Paper No. 2020/240, Peter D. Williams).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/13/inflation-expectations-in-the-u-s-49815"
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    "Authors: Peter D. Williams",
    "Published: November 13, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561158.001",
    "Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve’s target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC’s target.",
    "The paper estimates long-run inflation expectations using a factor model that incorporates information from:",
    "Long-run inflation expectations have fallen notably in the past few years — to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below the FOMC’s target.",
    "Evidence suggests that, even before the covid recession, the private sector viewed the economy as likely to suffer from persistent headwinds to inflation.",
    "Uses a factor modeling approach to combine multiple information sources (forecasters, surveys, TIPS).",
    "Incorporates concepts and terminology including:",
    "Persistent low long-run inflation expectations imply concerns about the deanchoring of inflation from the FOMC’s target.",
    "The findings are relevant for monetary policy, inflation targeting, liquidity considerations, and asset and liability management.",
    "Author: Peter D. Williams",
    "Publication date: November 13, 2020",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2020/240",
    "Issue: 240",
    "Volume: 2020",
    "Pages: 25",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561158.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2020240",
    "ISBN: 9781513561158",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subjects and keywords include: Asset and liability management; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Liquidity; Monetary policy; National accounts; Oil prices; Prices; Return on investment; breakeven inflation series; CPI inflation; expectations survey; factor modeling; inflation risk premium; no-arbitrage term structure model; TIPS; yield curve.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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