{
  "title": "India’s Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 13, 2020",
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  "summary": "We study the inflation process in India, focusing on the periods before and after the adoption of flexible inflation-forecast targeting (FIT) in India.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Title: India’s Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting\n- Authors: Patrick Blagrave, Weicheng Lian\n- Date: November 13, 2020\n- Abstract summary:\n  - The study examines the inflation process in India, comparing periods before and after adoption of flexible inflation-forecast targeting (FIT).\n  - Multiple approaches are used to assess inflation dynamics and expectations.\n  - Results point to a significant role for domestic factors and evidence that expectations have become more anchored since 2015.\n  - The observed anchoring could be attributable to FIT adoption, or to persistently low food prices dominating the post-FIT-adoption period.\n  - Policy implications are explored using a semi-structural model calibrated to the Indian economy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Approaches used:\n  - Standard Phillips curve estimation for headline and core inflation.\n  - Examination of the sensitivity of medium-term inflation expectations to inflation surprises.\n  - Analysis of the properties of convergence between headline and core inflation.\n  - Simulation and policy investigation via a semi-structural model calibrated to the Indian economy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and statistics",
      "content": "- Evidence and interpretation:\n  - Domestic factors play an important role in driving the inflation process in India.\n  - There is evidence that expectations have become more anchored since 2015.\n  - The increased anchoring of expectations could reflect either:\n    - Adoption of flexible inflation-forecast targeting (FIT), or\n    - Persistently low food prices that dominate the post-FIT-adoption period.\n- Publication metadata and numeric details:\n  - Pages: 26\n  - Volume: 2020\n  - Issue: 251\n  - Series: Working Paper No. 2020/251\n  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561233.001\n  - Stock No: WPIEA2020251\n  - ISBN: 9781513561233\n  - ISSN: 1018-5941"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Food prices, Import prices, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Prices\n- Keywords: core-inflation determinant, core-inflation process, Emerging and frontier financial markets, food price inflation, Food prices, Global, headline inflation forecast, headline inflation processes, Import prices, India, Inflation, inflation expectation, Inflation targeting, WP"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications",
      "content": "- The structural changes documented (greater role of domestic factors; more-anchored expectations since 2015) are assessed for their implications for monetary policy.\n- The semi-structural model calibrated to the Indian economy is used to investigate policy implications arising from these structural changes.\n\nIMF Working Paper — India’s Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting, Patrick Blagrave and Weicheng Lian, November 13, 2020.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/11/14/indias-inflation-process-before-and-after-flexible-inflation-targeting-49786"
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    "Authors: Patrick Blagrave, Weicheng Lian",
    "Published: November 13, 2020",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561233.001",
    "Title: India’s Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting",
    "Authors: Patrick Blagrave, Weicheng Lian",
    "Date: November 13, 2020",
    "Abstract summary:",
    "Approaches used:",
    "Evidence and interpretation:",
    "Publication metadata and numeric details:",
    "Subject: Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Food prices, Import prices, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Prices",
    "Keywords: core-inflation determinant, core-inflation process, Emerging and frontier financial markets, food price inflation, Food prices, Global, headline inflation forecast, headline inflation processes, Import prices, India, Inflation, inflation expectation, Inflation targeting, WP",
    "The structural changes documented (greater role of domestic factors; more-anchored expectations since 2015) are assessed for their implications for monetary policy.",
    "The semi-structural model calibrated to the Indian economy is used to investigate policy implications arising from these structural changes.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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