{
  "title": "Social Repercussions of Pandemics",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 29, 2021",
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  "summary": "Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest.\n- Epidemics may also have a mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities.\n- Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, the authors find:\n  - A positive cross-sectional relationship between social unrest and epidemics.\n  - The relationship reverses in the short run, implying that the mitigating effect dominates in the short run.\n- Recent trends in social unrest immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are consistent with this historic evidence.\n- It is reasonable to expect that, as the pandemic fades, unrest may reemerge in locations where it previously existed."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Evidence and methodology",
      "content": "- Data: A new monthly panel on social unrest covering 130 countries.\n- Empirical patterns:\n  - Cross-sectional analysis shows a positive association between epidemics and social unrest.\n  - Short-run (temporal) analysis shows a reversal of this relationship, consistent with short-run mitigation through reduced social activity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Implications and scenarios",
      "content": "- Short-term scenario:\n  - Mitigating effects dominate; epidemics suppress social unrest by dissuading social activities.\n- Medium-to-long-term scenario:\n  - Social scarring can increase the likelihood of social unrest; as pandemics fade, preexisting unrest may reemerge.\n- Recent COVID-19 observations align with the historical patterns identified in the study.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/01/29/social-repercussions-of-pandemics-50041"
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    "Authors: Philip Barrett, Sophia Chen",
    "Published: January 29, 2021",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513567723.001",
    "Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest.",
    "Epidemics may also have a mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities.",
    "Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, the authors find:",
    "Recent trends in social unrest immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are consistent with this historic evidence.",
    "It is reasonable to expect that, as the pandemic fades, unrest may reemerge in locations where it previously existed.",
    "Data: A new monthly panel on social unrest covering 130 countries.",
    "Empirical patterns:",
    "Short-term scenario:",
    "Medium-to-long-term scenario:",
    "Recent COVID-19 observations align with the historical patterns identified in the study.",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
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