## Social Repercussions of Pandemics

_IMF Working Papers, January 29, 2021_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Social Repercussions of Pandemics](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/01/29/social-repercussions-of-pandemics-50041)

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- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/01/29/social-repercussions-of-pandemics-50041/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/01/29/social-repercussions-of-pandemics-50041/index.json)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Philip Barrett, Sophia Chen
- Published: January 29, 2021
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513567723.001

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### Key findings
- Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest.
- Epidemics may also have a mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities.
- Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, the authors find:
  - A positive cross-sectional relationship between social unrest and epidemics.
  - The relationship reverses in the short run, implying that the mitigating effect dominates in the short run.
- Recent trends in social unrest immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are consistent with this historic evidence.
- It is reasonable to expect that, as the pandemic fades, unrest may reemerge in locations where it previously existed.

### Evidence and methodology
- Data: A new monthly panel on social unrest covering 130 countries.
- Empirical patterns:
  - Cross-sectional analysis shows a positive association between epidemics and social unrest.
  - Short-run (temporal) analysis shows a reversal of this relationship, consistent with short-run mitigation through reduced social activity.

### Implications and scenarios
- Short-term scenario:
  - Mitigating effects dominate; epidemics suppress social unrest by dissuading social activities.
- Medium-to-long-term scenario:
  - Social scarring can increase the likelihood of social unrest; as pandemics fade, preexisting unrest may reemerge.
- Recent COVID-19 observations align with the historical patterns identified in the study.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/01/29/social-repercussions-of-pandemics-50041_