## A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis

_IMF Working Papers, February 12, 2021_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/02/13/a-unified-model-of-cohort-mortality-for-economic-analysis-50062)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/02/13/a-unified-model-of-cohort-mortality-for-economic-analysis-50062/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/02/13/a-unified-model-of-cohort-mortality-for-economic-analysis-50062/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/02/13/a-unified-model-of-cohort-mortality-for-economic-analysis-50062/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Flavien Moreau, Adriana Lleras-Muney
- Published: February 12, 2021
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513569499.001

---

### Summary
- Proposal: A dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards.
- Model characteristics: Parsimonious; provides an excellent fit for mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816.
- Analytical scope: Sheds light on dynamics behind documented phenomena in the literature.

### Key findings and analytic contributions
- The model explains the following phenomena:
  - The existence and evolution of mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses.
  - Non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks.
  - Persistent or “scarring” effects of wars.
  - Mortality displacement after large temporary shocks such as extreme weather.
- Empirical fit:
  - Applies to primate and human populations since 1816.
  - Described as providing an "excellent fit" for mortality and survival curves.

### Publication and metadata (preserved exactly)
- Authors: Flavien Moreau, Adriana Lleras-Muney
- Date: February 12, 2021
- Series: Working Paper No. 2021/037
- Issue: 037
- Volume: 2021
- Pages: 67
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513569499.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2021037
- ISBN: 9781513569499
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Format citation (Chicago) as presented: Flavien Moreau, and Adriana Lleras-Muney. "A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis", IMF Working Papers 2021, 037 (2021), accessed 9/16/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513569499.001

*IMF Working Paper No. 2021/037 — A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/02/13/a-unified-model-of-cohort-mortality-for-economic-analysis-50062_