{
  "title": "Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 12, 2021",
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  "summary": "This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth and embeds these layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model.\n- Multiple scenarios differ along two dimensions:\n  - (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling;\n  - (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via “preferential attachment” — i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with.\n- Key outcome statement: All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment.\n- Representative quantitative statement: Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Scenarios and model setup",
      "content": "- Scenario dimensions:\n  - Coalition of hub initiators of decoupling.\n  - Presence or absence of preferential attachment by non-hub countries.\n- Behavioral assumption for preferential attachment: non-hub countries align with the hub they trade most with.\n- Model type: global dynamic macroeconomic model embedding multiple channels of technological decoupling."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Across scenarios:\n  - All global technology hubs experience losses.\n  - Losses are largest when preferential attachment forces non-hub countries to decouple.\n- Distributional effects:\n  - Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose.\n  - Countries whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain in some scenarios due to reduced competition.\n- Magnitude:\n  - Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords (as listed)",
      "content": "- Subjects: Economic sectors; Exports; Financial crises; Financial sector policy and analysis; International trade; Labor productivity; Production; Productivity; Spillovers; Trade balance.\n- Keywords: Asia and Pacific; China-United States; Exports; Global; high-tech goods trade; innovation drive; Labor productivity; non-tariff barriers; non-tariff barriers.; Productivity; R&D number; sectoral trade elasticity; Spillovers; Technological decoupling; trade; Trade balance; United States stop; world trade f low.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/03/12/sizing-up-the-effects-of-technological-decoupling-50125"
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    "Authors: Diego A. Cerdeiro, Rui Mano, Johannes Eugster, Dirk V Muir, Shanaka J Peiris",
    "Published: March 12, 2021",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513572673.001",
    "Paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth and embeds these layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model.",
    "Multiple scenarios differ along two dimensions:",
    "Key outcome statement: All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment.",
    "Representative quantitative statement: Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.",
    "Scenario dimensions:",
    "Behavioral assumption for preferential attachment: non-hub countries align with the hub they trade most with.",
    "Model type: global dynamic macroeconomic model embedding multiple channels of technological decoupling.",
    "Across scenarios:",
    "Distributional effects:",
    "Magnitude:",
    "Subjects: Economic sectors; Exports; Financial crises; Financial sector policy and analysis; International trade; Labor productivity; Production; Productivity; Spillovers; Trade balance.",
    "Keywords: Asia and Pacific; China-United States; Exports; Global; high-tech goods trade; innovation drive; Labor productivity; non-tariff barriers; non-tariff barriers.; Productivity; R&D number; sectoral trade elasticity; Spillovers; Technological decoupling; trade; Trade balance; United States stop; world trade f low.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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