## Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics

_IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2021_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan David Ostry, Pietro Pizzuto
- Published: May 1, 2021
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513582375.001

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### Overview
- Paper examines the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution.
- Authors: Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan David Ostry, Pietro Pizzuto.
- Date: May 1, 2021.
- Core finding: pandemics in the sample, though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have produced measurable distributional effects; evidence suggests COVID-19’s consequences may be larger than historical pandemics and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises.

### Key findings
- Income distribution effects observed after past pandemics:
  - Increases in the Gini coefficient.
  - Raised the income share of higher-income deciles.
  - Lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education.
- Comparative magnitude:
  - The distributional consequences from the current pandemic (COVID-19) may be larger than those from the historical pandemics in the sample.
  - The distributional consequences from COVID-19 may be larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises.

### Scope, data, and keywords
- Subject areas: COVID-19, Financial crises, Health, Income, Income distribution, Income inequality, National accounts.
- Keywords: COVID-19, Global, impact of pandemic, Income, Income distribution, Income inequality, income share, pandemic dummy regression, pandemic event, severity of the pandemic.
- Sample period: major epidemics from the past two decades (as described in the paper).

### Implications highlighted by the study
- Past pandemics have distributional impacts that disproportionately affect lower-educated workers and increase inequality measures.
- Policymakers should note that COVID-19’s distributional effects may exceed those seen in prior epidemics and typical macroeconomic crises, implying a need for targeted policy responses to limit long-lasting increases in inequality.

*Source: IMF Working Paper No. 2021/127*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/05/01/will-covid-19-affect-inequality-evidence-from-past-pandemics-50286_