## License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports

_IMF Working Papers, May 7, 2021_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jelle Barkema, Mico Mrkaic, Yuanchen Yang
- Published: May 7, 2021
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513573670.001

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### Overview
- Paper examines the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance.
- Scope: all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019.
- Method: use of a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze discussion of spillovers.

### Key findings
- Overall discussion of spillovers decreased over time.
- Discussion of spillovers was pronounced in staff reports of some systemically important economies.
- Spillover discussions were more pronounced during periods of global spillover events.
- Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies.
- Coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors.
- Countries more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports:
  - countries with larger economies,
  - countries with higher trade and capital account openess,
  - countries with lower inflation.

### Methodology and analytical tools
- Text analysis across Article IV staff reports for 2010–2019.
- Applied a state-of-the-art deep learning model.
- Relevant econometric/technical approaches referenced in metadata: Machine learning, Probit models, Econometric analysis.

### Thematic scope and subject coverage
- Sectors with higher spillover coverage: real sector, financial sector, external sector.
- Subject tags in the source: Balance of payments, Capital account, Econometric analysis, Economic sectors, Financial crises, Financial sector policy and analysis, Inflation, Machine learning, Prices, Probit models, Spillovers, Technology.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/05/07/license-to-spill-how-do-we-discuss-spillovers-in-article-iv-staff-reports-50241_