{
  "title": "An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, August 6, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/08/06/an-evaluation-of-world-economic-outlook-growth-forecasts-200417-462892",
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  "summary": "This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and key findings",
      "content": "- The paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17.\n- Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over 2004-17:\n  - Exhibit little bias.\n  - Have accuracy broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts.\n- Two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17:\n  - Tend to be upward biased.\n  - In up to half of countries, are less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past.\n- The analysis indicates that more efficient use of available information can improve forecast accuracy for some economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analysis: drivers of forecast performance",
      "content": "- Internal and external information identified as relevant for improving forecasts includes:\n  - The estimated output gap.\n  - Projected terms of trade.\n  - The growth forecasts of major trading partners.\n- Relative performance notes:\n  - Short-term horizon: little bias and comparable accuracy to Consensus Economics.\n  - Medium-term horizon (two- to five-year): systematic upward bias and frequent underperformance versus naïve historical-average forecasts."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Enhance the use of available internal and external indicators in forecast models, specifically:\n  - Incorporate the estimated output gap more effectively.\n  - Integrate projected terms of trade into growth projections.\n  - Use the growth forecasts of major trading partners to inform medium-term forecasts.\n- For economies where two- to five-year forecasts underperform, consider benchmarking against simple historical-average forecasts as a robustness check."
    },
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      "heading": "Publication and metadata",
      "content": "- Authors: Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, Allan Timmermann\n- Publication date: August 6, 2021\n- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2021/216\n- Issue: 216\n- Pages: 47\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513587172.001\n- ISBN: 9781513587172\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n\nIMF Working Paper — An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/08/06/an-evaluation-of-world-economic-outlook-growth-forecasts-200417-462892"
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    "Authors: Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, Allan Timmermann",
    "Published: August 6, 2021",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513587172.001",
    "The paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17.",
    "Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over 2004-17:",
    "Two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17:",
    "The analysis indicates that more efficient use of available information can improve forecast accuracy for some economies.",
    "Internal and external information identified as relevant for improving forecasts includes:",
    "Relative performance notes:",
    "Enhance the use of available internal and external indicators in forecast models, specifically:",
    "For economies where two- to five-year forecasts underperform, consider benchmarking against simple historical-average forecasts as a robustness check.",
    "Authors: Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, Allan Timmermann",
    "Publication date: August 6, 2021",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2021/216",
    "Issue: 216",
    "Pages: 47",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513587172.001",
    "ISBN: 9781513587172",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "**Working Paper**",
    "**Working Paper**"
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