{
  "title": "The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 19, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/10/19/the-effects-of-covid-19-vaccines-on-economic-activity-494714",
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  "summary": "This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 c",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Paper objective: Empirically examine the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity.\n- Authors: Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jimenez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan David Ostry, Nour Tawk.\n- Publication date: October 19, 2021.\n- Sample coverage: 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data and methodology",
      "content": "- High-frequency activity indicators used:\n  - Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions.\n  - Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions.\n  - Google mobility indices.\n- Identification strategy:\n  - Uses surprises in vaccines administered (vaccine surprises) to identify causal effects of vaccination increases on economic activity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical findings",
      "content": "- An unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity.\n- Evidence for non-linear effects:\n  - The marginal economic benefits of vaccination are larger when vaccination rates are higher.\n- Role of country-specific conditions:\n  - Lower economic gains from vaccination if strict containment measures are in place.\n  - Lower economic gains if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak.\n- Cross-border effects:\n  - Results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, underscoring the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Vaccine rollouts can materially boost short-run economic activity through channels captured by NO2, CO, and mobility indicators.\n- Maximizing economic gains from vaccination may require:\n  - Achieving higher vaccination rates where marginal benefits are larger.\n  - Coordinating containment policies with vaccination progress to avoid blunting economic gains.\n  - Addressing severe outbreaks alongside vaccination to preserve economic benefits.\n- International coordination:\n  - Evidence of cross-border spillovers highlights the economic rationale for equitable access to vaccines across countries.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/10/19/the-effects-of-covid-19-vaccines-on-economic-activity-494714"
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    "Authors: Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jimenez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan David Ostry, Nour Tawk",
    "Published: October 19, 2021",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589063761.001",
    "Paper objective: Empirically examine the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity.",
    "Authors: Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jimenez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan David Ostry, Nour Tawk.",
    "Publication date: October 19, 2021.",
    "Sample coverage: 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021.",
    "High-frequency activity indicators used:",
    "Identification strategy:",
    "An unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity.",
    "Evidence for non-linear effects:",
    "Role of country-specific conditions:",
    "Cross-border effects:",
    "Vaccine rollouts can materially boost short-run economic activity through channels captured by NO2, CO, and mobility indicators.",
    "Maximizing economic gains from vaccination may require:",
    "International coordination:",
    "**Working Paper**"
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