{ "title": "Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges", "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 18, 2022", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389/index.md", "summary": "This article documents recent developments in emerging markets in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses their prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Title: Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges\n- Authors: Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Vladimir Klyuev, Leandro Medina, Boaz Nandwa, Dmitry Plotnikov, Francisco Schiffrer, Di Yang\n- Date: February 18, 2022\n- Scope: Documents recent developments in emerging markets (EMs) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term." }, { "heading": "Key findings and diagnostics", "content": "- The EM recovery is described as incomplete and uneven.\n- EM policymakers’ ability to respond will be constrained by:\n - high public debt\n - uncertain inflation prospects\n - external risks surrounding capital flows and exchange rate developments\n- The paper analyzes potential impacts of:\n - a tightening in global financial conditions\n - an appreciation of the US dollar\n- Triggers considered for those impacts include:\n - a general increase in risk aversion\n - a reassessment of the likely path of US monetary policy" }, { "heading": "Risks and scenarios highlighted", "content": "- External risks: capital flow volatility and exchange rate pressures in EMs.\n- Global-financial-conditions tightening and US dollar appreciation are central downside scenarios considered.\n- Pandemic context: COVID-19 is the backdrop shaping recent EM developments and prospects." }, { "heading": "Policy implications and areas for medium-term focus", "content": "- Policymakers should account for constraints posed by high public debt when designing medium-term policy settings.\n- Inflation uncertainty implies a need for careful inflation monitoring and possibly adaptable monetary frameworks.\n- External-sector preparedness: policies to manage capital flow volatility and exchange rate developments are important.\n- Contingency planning for scenarios involving higher global risk aversion or shifts in US monetary policy is recommended." }, { "heading": "Subjects and keywords (as provided)", "content": "- Subject: COVID-19, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Exchange rates, Financial markets, Foreign exchange, Health, Inflation, Prices, Public debt\n- Keywords: COVID-19, EM inflation, EM NEER, EM policymakers' ability, Emerging and frontier financial markets, emerging market bond yields, Emerging markets, Exchange rates, Global, Inflation, Monetary Policy, monetary policy tightening\n\nIMF Working Papers — Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges (February 18, 2022) by Tryggvi Gudmundsson et al.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Vladimir Klyuev, Leandro Medina, Boaz Nandwa, Dmitry Plotnikov, Francisco Schiffrer, Di Yang", "Published: February 18, 2022", "Series: IMF Working Papers", "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400203954.001", "Title: Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges", "Authors: Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Vladimir Klyuev, Leandro Medina, Boaz Nandwa, Dmitry Plotnikov, Francisco Schiffrer, Di Yang", "Date: February 18, 2022", "Scope: Documents recent developments in emerging markets (EMs) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term.", "The EM recovery is described as incomplete and uneven.", "EM policymakers’ ability to respond will be constrained by:", "The paper analyzes potential impacts of:", "Triggers considered for those impacts include:", "External risks: capital flow volatility and exchange rate pressures in EMs.", "Global-financial-conditions tightening and US dollar appreciation are central downside scenarios considered.", "Pandemic context: COVID-19 is the backdrop shaping recent EM developments and prospects.", "Policymakers should account for constraints posed by high public debt when designing medium-term policy settings.", "Inflation uncertainty implies a need for careful inflation monitoring and possibly adaptable monetary frameworks.", "External-sector preparedness: policies to manage capital flow volatility and exchange rate developments are important.", "Contingency planning for scenarios involving higher global risk aversion or shifts in US monetary policy is recommended.", "Subject: COVID-19, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Exchange rates, Financial markets, Foreign exchange, Health, Inflation, Prices, Public debt", "Keywords: COVID-19, EM inflation, EM NEER, EM policymakers' ability, Emerging and frontier financial markets, emerging market bond yields, Emerging markets, Exchange rates, Global, Inflation, Monetary Policy, monetary policy tightening", "**Working Paper**" ], "related": [ { "title": "Working Paper", "role": "paper", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022035-print-pdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022035-print-pdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022035-print-pdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/02/18/emerging-markets-prospects-and-challenges-513389/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-16T20:46:20.385Z" }