{
  "title": "Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting: High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 3, 2022",
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  "summary": "Forecasting a macroframework, which consists of many macroeconomic variables and accounting identities, is widely conducted in the policy arena to present an economic narrative and check its consistency.",
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      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Forecasting a macroframework composed of many macroeconomic variables and accounting identities is widely conducted in the policy arena to present an economic narrative and check its consistency.\n- The paper identifies the core challenge: forecasters must extend limited information to the entire macroframework in an internally consistent manner.\n- The paper proposes a method that can improve the WEO forecast."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology proposed",
      "content": "- Integrate (1) conditional forecasting with machine-learning techniques and (2) forecast reconciliation of hierarchical time series.\n- Emphasis on systematizing macroframework forecasting to handle high-dimensional conditional forecasting while respecting accounting identities."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Applications and empirical findings",
      "content": "- Applied to an advanced economy and a tourism-dependent economy using France and Seychelles.\n- The application shows that the proposed method can improve the WEO forecast."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key publication information and metadata",
      "content": "- By Sakai Ando, Taehoon Kim\n- June 3, 2022\n- Pages: 25\n- Volume: 2022\n- Issue: 110\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2022/110\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400211683.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2022110\n- ISBN: 9798400211683\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Subject: Balance of payments, Current account balance, GDP measurement, National accounts\n- Keywords: Accounting Identities, accounting identity, Conditional Forecasting, Current account balance, forecasting method, framework forecasting, GDP measurement, Hierarchical Time Series, IMF working paper 22/110, Macroframework, Reconciliation, unknown variable\n\nIMF Working Papers — Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting: High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities (June 3, 2022) by Sakai Ando and Taehoon Kim.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/06/03/systematizing-macroframework-forecasting-high-dimensional-conditional-forecasting-with-518879"
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    "Authors: Sakai Ando, Taehoon Kim",
    "Published: June 3, 2022",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400211683.001",
    "Forecasting a macroframework composed of many macroeconomic variables and accounting identities is widely conducted in the policy arena to present an economic narrative and check its consistency.",
    "The paper identifies the core challenge: forecasters must extend limited information to the entire macroframework in an internally consistent manner.",
    "The paper proposes a method that can improve the WEO forecast.",
    "Integrate (1) conditional forecasting with machine-learning techniques and (2) forecast reconciliation of hierarchical time series.",
    "Emphasis on systematizing macroframework forecasting to handle high-dimensional conditional forecasting while respecting accounting identities.",
    "Applied to an advanced economy and a tourism-dependent economy using France and Seychelles.",
    "The application shows that the proposed method can improve the WEO forecast.",
    "By Sakai Ando, Taehoon Kim",
    "June 3, 2022",
    "Pages: 25",
    "Volume: 2022",
    "Issue: 110",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2022/110",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400211683.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2022110",
    "ISBN: 9798400211683",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subject: Balance of payments, Current account balance, GDP measurement, National accounts",
    "Keywords: Accounting Identities, accounting identity, Conditional Forecasting, Current account balance, forecasting method, framework forecasting, GDP measurement, Hierarchical Time Series, IMF working paper 22/110, Macroframework, Reconciliation, unknown variable",
    "**Working Paper**"
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