## Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam: A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation

_IMF Working Papers, June 24, 2022_

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**Canonical URL:** [Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam: A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/06/24/quarterly-projection-model-for-vietnam-a-hybrid-approach-for-monetary-policy-implementation-519929)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Natan P. Epstein, Lucyna Gornicka, Nga Ha, Karel Musil, Valeriu Nalban
- Published: June 24, 2022
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400212536.001

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### Overview
- Newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam; an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model.
- Accounts for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework.
- Calibrated model embeds a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism.
- Demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy, supporting richer analysis and forecast-based narratives for a forward-looking monetary policy regime.
- Publication date: June 24, 2022.
- Authors: Natan P. Epstein, Lucyna Gornicka, Nga Ha, Karel Musil, Valeriu Nalban.

### Model features and structure
- Extension of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model tailored to Vietnam.
- Hybrid monetary policy framework explicitly modeled.
- Incorporates a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism.

### Policy instruments represented
- Interest rates.
- Indicative nominal credit growth guidance.
- Exchange rate interventions.
- All instruments are modeled as those the authorities employ to meet the primary objective of price stability.

### Empirical performance and usability
- Calibrated model demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy.
- Designed to support richer analysis and forecast-based narratives crucial for a forward-looking monetary policy regime.

### Subjects and keywords
- Subjects: Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rates; Foreign exchange; Inflation; Nominal effective exchange rate; Prices; Real exchange rates.
- Keywords: Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rates; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; forward-looking monetary policy regime; Global; impulse response; Inflation; Monetary Policy; monetary policy implementation; Nominal effective exchange rate; projection model; Quarterly Projection Model; Real exchange rates; sample forecasting accuracy; Transmission Mechanism; Vietnam.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/06/24/quarterly-projection-model-for-vietnam-a-hybrid-approach-for-monetary-policy-implementation-519929_