{
  "title": "The Fiscal Stance in Japan: A Model-based Analysis",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, August 19, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/08/19/the-fiscal-stance-in-japan-a-model-based-analysis-522483",
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  "summary": "This paper assesses Japan’s fiscal stance in the past and the future with a stochastic structural model called the Buffer-Stock Model of the Government. Our retrospective analysis suggests that the fiscal stance in the 1990s and the early 2000s was overall looser than the model recommendations.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Authors and Publication",
      "content": "- Jean-Marc Fournier, Takuma Hisanaga, Anh D. M. Nguyen\n- August 19, 2022\n- IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2022/164; Issue: 164; Volume: 2022; Pages: 22\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400217135.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2022164; ISBN: 9798400217135; ISSN: 1018-5941"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Abstract and Core Assessment",
      "content": "- The paper assesses Japan’s fiscal stance in the past and the future using a stochastic structural model called the Buffer-Stock Model of the Government.\n- Retrospective conclusion: fiscal stance in the 1990s and the early 2000s was overall looser than the model recommendations.\n- Forward-looking recommendation: the model advises near-term fiscal policy to be supportive to narrow the output gap and minimize hysteresis, while recommending a fiscal consolidation over the medium-term at a gradual pace."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings (Retrospective)",
      "content": "- Fiscal stance in the 1990s and the early 2000s was overall looser than model recommendations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Recommendations (Forward-looking)",
      "content": "- Near-term: adopt a supportive fiscal policy with the objective of narrowing the output gap and minimizing hysteresis.\n- Medium-term: implement a gradual fiscal consolidation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Model and Analytical Focus",
      "content": "- Model used: Buffer-Stock Model of the Government (stochastic structural model).\n- Analytical emphasis: fiscal stance assessment across historical episodes and future policy paths, balancing cycle stabilization and debt concerns."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Output gap, Production, Public debt\n- Keywords: B. sensitivity analysis, baseline calibration, baseline model advice, cycle stabilization, debt buffer, debt level, Fiscal consolidation, fiscal policy path, Fiscal stance, Global, government debt, government deficit, interest rate-growth differential, Japan's fiscal policy, near-term fiscal policy, Output gap, sustainability concern, utility function\n\nSource: The Fiscal Stance in Japan: A Model-based Analysis, IMF Working Papers 2022, 164 (2022).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/08/19/the-fiscal-stance-in-japan-a-model-based-analysis-522483"
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    "Authors: Jean-Marc Fournier, Takuma Hisanaga, Anh D. M. Nguyen",
    "Published: August 19, 2022",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400217135.001",
    "Jean-Marc Fournier, Takuma Hisanaga, Anh D. M. Nguyen",
    "August 19, 2022",
    "IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2022/164; Issue: 164; Volume: 2022; Pages: 22",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400217135.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2022164; ISBN: 9798400217135; ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "The paper assesses Japan’s fiscal stance in the past and the future using a stochastic structural model called the Buffer-Stock Model of the Government.",
    "Retrospective conclusion: fiscal stance in the 1990s and the early 2000s was overall looser than the model recommendations.",
    "Forward-looking recommendation: the model advises near-term fiscal policy to be supportive to narrow the output gap and minimize hysteresis, while recommending a fiscal consolidation over the medium-term at a gradual pace.",
    "Fiscal stance in the 1990s and the early 2000s was overall looser than model recommendations.",
    "Near-term: adopt a supportive fiscal policy with the objective of narrowing the output gap and minimizing hysteresis.",
    "Medium-term: implement a gradual fiscal consolidation.",
    "Model used: Buffer-Stock Model of the Government (stochastic structural model).",
    "Analytical emphasis: fiscal stance assessment across historical episodes and future policy paths, balancing cycle stabilization and debt concerns.",
    "Subject: Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Output gap, Production, Public debt",
    "Keywords: B. sensitivity analysis, baseline calibration, baseline model advice, cycle stabilization, debt buffer, debt level, Fiscal consolidation, fiscal policy path, Fiscal stance, Global, government debt, government deficit, interest rate-growth differential, Japan's fiscal policy, near-term fiscal policy, Output gap, sustainability concern, utility function",
    "**Working Paper**"
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