{
  "title": "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 28, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200/index.md",
  "summary": "This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Decomposition of inflation dynamics",
      "content": "- The paper decomposes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020 into:\n  - A rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate.\n  - Deviations of headline inflation from core."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of core inflation",
      "content": "- Core inflation rise is explained with two primary factors:\n  - Tightening of the labor market captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment.\n  - Pass-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of headline inflation",
      "content": "- Headline shocks are explained largely by:\n  - Increases in energy prices.\n  - Supply chain problems captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Forward simulations and scenarios",
      "content": "- The paper simulates the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, with a focus on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent.\n- Key scenario findings:\n  - The unemployment path rising to 4.4 percent returns inflation to near the Fed’s target only under optimistic assumptions about both:\n    - Inflation expectations.\n    - The Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates.\n  - Under less benign assumptions about these factors, inflation remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Fed projects.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Laurence M. Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prachi Mishra",
    "Published: October 28, 2022",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400225390.001",
    "The paper decomposes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020 into:",
    "Core inflation rise is explained with two primary factors:",
    "Headline shocks are explained largely by:",
    "The paper simulates the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, with a focus on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent.",
    "Key scenario findings:",
    "**Working Paper**",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022208-print-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022208-print-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022208-print-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022208app-print-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022208app-print-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022208app-print-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/28/understanding-u-s-525200/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-16T21:47:43.018Z"
}