{
  "title": "A Quarterly Projection Model for the WAEMU",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 28, 2022",
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  "summary": "This study describes a semi-structural New-Keynesian Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for the WAEMU zone. In the context of a fixed exchange rate regime and relatively tight capital controls, the central bank for the WAEMU monetary union (Banque Centrale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, BCEAO) can",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Model structure and key features",
      "content": "- Semi-structural New-Keynesian Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) adapted for the WAEMU zone.\n- Adjustments to the canonical QPM to capture:\n  - The fixed exchange rate regime.\n  - Relatively tight capital controls.\n  - The ability of the central bank (Banque Centrale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, BCEAO) to exert some influence on domestic money markets and interest rates.\n  - An implicit foreign exchange reserve target within the BCEAO monetary policy framework."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Parametrization and estimation",
      "content": "- The model is parametrized through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Dynamic properties and validation",
      "content": "- The model displays dynamic properties for the main variables in response to various shocks that are in line with theoretical priors and empirical evidence.\n- Moments computed from artificial data generated with the model match well those observed in the data."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Forecasting and scenario analysis",
      "content": "- Medium-term forecasts that consider the Covid-19 pandemic produce sensible results when compared with forecasts produced by a standard VAR."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analytical uses and policy relevance",
      "content": "- The model displays desirable analytical properties and sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities.\n- Potential uses for the BCEAO include:\n  - Identifying relevant shocks.\n  - Mapping shock propagation into the WAEMU regional economy.\n  - Better supporting monetary policy decisions through improved diagnosis and projection.\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper \"A Quarterly Projection Model for the WAEMU\" (authors: Carlos de Resende, Alsim Fall, Demba Sy; October 28, 2022).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/10/29/a-quarterly-projection-model-for-the-waemu-525213"
    }
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    "Authors: Carlos de Resende, Alsim Fall, Demba Sy",
    "Published: October 28, 2022",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400225864.001",
    "Semi-structural New-Keynesian Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) adapted for the WAEMU zone.",
    "Adjustments to the canonical QPM to capture:",
    "The model is parametrized through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques.",
    "The model displays dynamic properties for the main variables in response to various shocks that are in line with theoretical priors and empirical evidence.",
    "Moments computed from artificial data generated with the model match well those observed in the data.",
    "Medium-term forecasts that consider the Covid-19 pandemic produce sensible results when compared with forecasts produced by a standard VAR.",
    "The model displays desirable analytical properties and sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities.",
    "Potential uses for the BCEAO include:",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
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