{
  "title": "Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 27, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/01/27/northern-triangle-undocumented-migration-to-the-united-states-528663",
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  "summary": "Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times.\n- The paper investigates factors explaining this trend by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Empirical approach: estimation of an investment decision model.\n- Data frequency and span: annual data over 1990-2019."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Economic labor market conditions play a major role:\n  - Real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S., are important determinants of undocumented migration.\n- Living-conditions drivers in origin countries also explain migration:\n  - Natural disasters.\n  - Coffee production.\n  - Higher temperatures.\n  - Homicide rates.\n- Border enforcement effects:\n  - Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent.\n  - Perceptions regarding changes in enforcement measures can at times drive up undocumented migration."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Policies that address the root causes of migration in origin countries are essential.\n- U.S. assistance in addressing these root causes is important to reduce the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper. Authors: Alina Carare, Catherine Koh, Yorbol Yakhshilikov. January 27, 2023.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/01/27/northern-triangle-undocumented-migration-to-the-united-states-528663"
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    "Authors: Alina Carare, Catherine Koh, Yorbol Yakhshilikov",
    "Published: January 27, 2023",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400232039.001",
    "Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times.",
    "The paper investigates factors explaining this trend by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019.",
    "Empirical approach: estimation of an investment decision model.",
    "Data frequency and span: annual data over 1990-2019.",
    "Economic labor market conditions play a major role:",
    "Living-conditions drivers in origin countries also explain migration:",
    "Border enforcement effects:",
    "Policies that address the root causes of migration in origin countries are essential.",
    "U.S. assistance in addressing these root causes is important to reduce the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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