## Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States

_IMF Working Papers, January 27, 2023_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/01/27/northern-triangle-undocumented-migration-to-the-united-states-528663)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Alina Carare, Catherine Koh, Yorbol Yakhshilikov
- Published: January 27, 2023
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400232039.001

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### Overview
- Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times.
- The paper investigates factors explaining this trend by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019.

### Methodology
- Empirical approach: estimation of an investment decision model.
- Data frequency and span: annual data over 1990-2019.

### Key findings
- Economic labor market conditions play a major role:
  - Real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S., are important determinants of undocumented migration.
- Living-conditions drivers in origin countries also explain migration:
  - Natural disasters.
  - Coffee production.
  - Higher temperatures.
  - Homicide rates.
- Border enforcement effects:
  - Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent.
  - Perceptions regarding changes in enforcement measures can at times drive up undocumented migration.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Policies that address the root causes of migration in origin countries are essential.
- U.S. assistance in addressing these root causes is important to reduce the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.

*Source: IMF Working Paper. Authors: Alina Carare, Catherine Koh, Yorbol Yakhshilikov. January 27, 2023.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
  - [Working Paper (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023017-print-pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Working Paper (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023017-print-pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/01/27/northern-triangle-undocumented-migration-to-the-united-states-528663_