{
  "title": "Low for (Very) Long? A Long-Run Perspective on r across Advanced Economies",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, April 21, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/04/21/low-for-very-long-a-long-run-perspective-on-r-across-advanced-economies-530081",
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  "summary": "We provide a long-run perspective on neutral interest rates with new estimates for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach. Our estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- New estimates of neutral interest rates (r) for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach.\n- Estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies.\n- Cross-country heterogeneity in r was significant historically; since the 1980s the decline in r has been common to many countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major findings",
      "content": "- Traditional determinants such as population aging and productivity growth are strongly correlated with changes in neutral rates.\n- The relative price of capital and inequality exhibit weak relationships with r.\n- Neutral rates co-vary negatively with public debt-to-GDP ratios."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Estimation approach: Laubach and Williams method applied to 16 advanced economies with data stretching back to the 1870s.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/04/21/low-for-very-long-a-long-run-perspective-on-r-across-advanced-economies-530081"
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    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/04/21/low-for-very-long-a-long-run-perspective-on-r-across-advanced-economies-530081/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/04/21/low-for-very-long-a-long-run-perspective-on-r-across-advanced-economies-530081/index.json)",
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    "Authors: Josef Platzer, Francesco Grigoli, Robin Tietz",
    "Published: April 21, 2023",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "New estimates of neutral interest rates (r*) for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach.",
    "Estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies.",
    "Cross-country heterogeneity in r* was significant historically; since the 1980s the decline in r* has been common to many countries.",
    "Traditional determinants such as population aging and productivity growth are strongly correlated with changes in neutral rates.",
    "The relative price of capital and inequality exhibit weak relationships with r*.",
    "Neutral rates co-vary negatively with public debt-to-GDP ratios.",
    "Estimation approach: Laubach and Williams method applied to 16 advanced economies with data stretching back to the 1870s.",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
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