## When Will Global Gender Gaps Close?

_IMF Working Papers, September 15, 2023_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Alejandro Badel, Rishi Goyal
- Published: September 15, 2023
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400249044.001

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### Executive summary
- On the current pace of reforms, global gender gaps are estimated to close, using deterministic (linear or log-linear) trends, over the next three centuries.
- Using Markov chains to analyze the dynamics of the cross-country distribution of the gender gap in labor force participation, the paper finds that—based on the past three decades—gender gaps are likely to narrow further over time.
- However, the long-run distribution predicted by the Markov-chain analysis features a substantial share of countries with persistently large gaps, implying that—absent a strengthened and systematic policy effort—some misallocation of women’s talents and abilities could persist perpetually.

### Methodology
- Analytical approach: Markov chains (a common approach in macroeconomics) applied to the cross-country distribution of the gender gap in labor force participation.
- Rationale: This methodology does not impose strong restrictions on the data and allows for episodes of progress as well as regress by countries on gender inequality.
- Comparison: Contrasts deterministic trend extrapolations (linear or log-linear) with stochastic dynamics captured by Markov-chain transitions.

### Key findings and projections
- Deterministic trend projection: Global gender gaps close over the next three centuries under linear or log-linear extrapolations of current reform pace.
- Stochastic dynamics projection: Based on the experience of the past three decades, Markov-chain analysis predicts further narrowing of gender gaps over time but also identifies a persistent long-run tail of countries with large gender gaps.
- Implication: Absent significant policy escalation, gender gaps may in fact never close for a meaningful share of countries.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Strengthen and systematize policy efforts to accelerate closing of gender gaps in labor force participation.
- Target interventions to countries projected to remain in the long-run distribution tail with persistently large gaps to avoid perpetual misallocation of women’s talents and abilities.
- Use flexible analytical frameworks (such as Markov chains) in monitoring to capture regressions as well as progress and to inform dynamic policy responses.

*Source: IMF Working Paper "When Will Global Gender Gaps Close?" by Alejandro Badel and Rishi Goyal, September 15, 2023.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/09/13/when-will-global-gender-gaps-close-537981_