{
  "title": "China Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 17, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/09/28/china-spillovers-aggregate-and-firm-level-evidence-539668",
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  "summary": "We estimate the impact of distinct types of slowdowns in China on countries and firms globally. First, we combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth.\n- Use local projection models to assess responses to such shocks of GDP growth (country-level) and revenue (firm-level)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Both supply and demand slowdowns in China are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue.\n- Negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China.\n- Spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subjects: Consumption, Econometric analysis, Economic theory, Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, International trade, National accounts, Spillovers, Structural vector autoregression, Supply shocks\n- Keywords: China spillover, China Spillovers, Consumption, Exports, Global, Spillovers, spillovers from demand shocks, Structural vector autoregression, supply and demand demand shock, supply and demand slowdown, Supply shocks, Supply-Demand Decomposition\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/09/28/china-spillovers-aggregate-and-firm-level-evidence-539668"
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    "Authors: Alexander Copestake, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri, Chris Redl",
    "Published: October 17, 2023",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400257353.001",
    "Combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth.",
    "Use local projection models to assess responses to such shocks of GDP growth (country-level) and revenue (firm-level).",
    "Both supply and demand slowdowns in China are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue.",
    "Negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China.",
    "Spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level.",
    "Subjects: Consumption, Econometric analysis, Economic theory, Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, International trade, National accounts, Spillovers, Structural vector autoregression, Supply shocks",
    "Keywords: China spillover, China Spillovers, Consumption, Exports, Global, Spillovers, spillovers from demand shocks, Structural vector autoregression, supply and demand demand shock, supply and demand slowdown, Supply shocks, Supply-Demand Decomposition",
    "**Working Paper**"
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