## Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings - A Case Study on Turkmenistan

_IMF Working Papers, September 29, 2023_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Levan Gogoberishvili, Ömer E. Bayar
- Published: September 29, 2023
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400256646.001

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### Core findings and motivation
- Reliable national accounts are essential for proper economic analyses and informed policymaking by national authorities as well as other stakeholders.
- In many countries, national accounts statistics are subject to serious shortcomings, which are often manifested as overestimated growth rates.
- Where official data are not adequate for surveillance, IMF staff compile alternative estimates by applying various forecasting methods.
- This study proposes a more holistic, bottom-up approach, which is based on the compilation of GDP by the expenditure method with limited source data.
- The study discusses the case of Turkmenistan, where this method was implemented in practice.

### Methodological approach
- Bottom-up compilation of GDP by the expenditure method using limited source data.
- Contrast with existing practice where IMF staff use various forecasting methods to produce alternative estimates when official data are inadequate.

### Case study: Turkmenistan
- The bottom-up expenditure-method approach was implemented in practice for Turkmenistan.
- The paper uses the Turkmenistan experience to illustrate the proposed holistic methodology and its application in a context with statistical shortcomings.

### Policy implications and recommendations (implicit from study objectives)
- Strengthen national accounts compilation by adopting bottom-up, expenditure-based approaches when source data are limited.
- Use holistic methods to produce alternative GDP estimates in cases where official statistics likely overstate growth.
- Apply the Turkmenistan case as a practical example for other countries with similar statistical shortcomings.

### Key statistics and publication metadata
- Authors: Levan Gogoberishvili, Ömer E. Bayar
- Date: September 29, 2023
- Pages: 27
- Volume: 2023
- Issue: 207
- Series: Working Paper No. 2023/207
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400256646.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2023207
- ISBN: 9798400256646
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subject: Consumption, Economic sectors, Exports, Financial crises, Gross fixed investment, Household consumption, Imports, International trade, National accounts
- Keywords: Central Asia and the Caucasus, commodity trade statistics database, Consumption, data shortcoming, data shortcomings, Exports, forecasting method, GDP, Global, Gross fixed investment, growth estimates, Household consumption, IMF working paper 23/207, Imports, national accounts, reassessing GDP growth

*Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings - A Case Study on Turkmenistan, IMF Working Papers 2023/207.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/09/29/reassessing-gdp-growth-in-countries-with-statistical-shortcomings-a-case-study-on-539482_