{
  "title": "Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 27, 2023",
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  "summary": "Are we really witnessing the death of globalization? A multitude of shocks over the past three years has unsettled the conventional wisdom on economic integration and fueled widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of research question and methodology",
      "content": "- Research question: Are we really witnessing the death of globalization given recent geopolitical shocks and calls for protectionist and nationalist policies?\n- Empirical approach: Develops an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows.\n- Dataset scope:\n  - \"more than 4 million observations\"\n  - 59,049 country-pairs\n  - Period: 1948–2021"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical findings",
      "content": "- Geopolitical alignment:\n  - The geopolitical alignment between countries has contradictory and statistically insignificant effects on trade, depending on the level of economic development.\n  - The economic magnitude of this geopolitical effect is not as important as income or geographic distance.\n  - The geopolitical effect diminishes significantly when extreme outliers are removed from the sample.\n- Income and distance:\n  - The level of income in both origin and destination countries has a positive impact on trade.\n  - Greater geographic distance between countries reduces bilateral trade due to higher trade costs.\n- Other determinants:\n  - Cultural similarities and historical ties are important in shaping trade flows.\n  - Trade agreements tend to lead to higher levels of international trade."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy-relevant implications",
      "content": "- Relative importance of drivers:\n  - Income levels and geographic distance remain more important determinants of bilateral trade than geopolitical alignment.\n- Sensitivity to outliers:\n  - Robustness checks removing extreme outliers materially weaken the measured geopolitical effect, suggesting caution in attributing large trade shifts to geopolitics alone.\n- Trade policy considerations:\n  - Given the persistent positive role of trade agreements and cultural/historical ties, policy shifts toward protectionism should weigh these enduring drivers of trade."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and publication identifiers",
      "content": "- Dataset: \"more than 4 million observations\"\n- Country-pairs: 59,049\n- Time span: 1948–2021\n- Pages: 21\n- Volume: 2023\n- Issue: 225\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2023/225\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400258169.001\n- ISBN: 9798400258169\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n\nSource: Serhan Cevik, \"Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade\", IMF Working Papers No. 2023/225 (October 27, 2023).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/10/27/long-live-globalization-geopolitical-shocks-and-international-trade-540832"
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    "Authors: Serhan Cevik",
    "Published: October 27, 2023",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400258169.001",
    "Research question: Are we really witnessing the death of globalization given recent geopolitical shocks and calls for protectionist and nationalist policies?",
    "Empirical approach: Develops an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows.",
    "Dataset scope:",
    "Geopolitical alignment:",
    "Income and distance:",
    "Other determinants:",
    "Relative importance of drivers:",
    "Sensitivity to outliers:",
    "Trade policy considerations:",
    "Dataset: \"more than 4 million observations\"",
    "Country-pairs: 59,049",
    "Time span: 1948–2021",
    "Pages: 21",
    "Volume: 2023",
    "Issue: 225",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2023/225",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400258169.001",
    "ISBN: 9798400258169",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "**Working Paper**"
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