{
  "title": "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, December 15, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526/index.md",
  "summary": "We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Novel approach combining analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques.\n- Distinguishes impacts of immigration shocks in OECD countries from refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- In OECD countries:\n  - Large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy.\n  - No evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population.\n- In emerging and developing countries:\n  - Analysis of large refugee flows does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country.\n  - Conclusion aligns with evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Implications for research and policy",
      "content": "- Dynamic gains from immigration in OECD contexts suggest policy frameworks should consider medium-term and short-term productivity and output benefits when assessing immigration episodes.\n- The lack of clear macroeconomic effects from refugee flows into emerging and developing countries highlights the need for targeted research and policies addressing disadvantages faced by refugee immigrants."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Econometric analysis, Employment, Estimation techniques, Labor, Migration, Population and demographics, Production, Total factor productivity\n- Keywords: dynamic gains, Employment, Estimation techniques, Immigration, immigration episode, immigration shock, immigration wave, Middle East, Migration, migration shock, OECD migration flow data, productivity, Total factor productivity\n\nPhilipp Engler, Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza, and Galen Sher. \"The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves\", IMF Working Papers 2023, 259 (2023), accessed 8/19/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400261794.001\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Philipp Engler, Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza, Galen Sher",
    "Published: December 15, 2023",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400261794.001",
    "Novel approach combining analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques.",
    "Distinguishes impacts of immigration shocks in OECD countries from refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies.",
    "In OECD countries:",
    "In emerging and developing countries:",
    "Dynamic gains from immigration in OECD contexts suggest policy frameworks should consider medium-term and short-term productivity and output benefits when assessing immigration episodes.",
    "The lack of clear macroeconomic effects from refugee flows into emerging and developing countries highlights the need for targeted research and policies addressing disadvantages faced by refugee immigrants.",
    "Subject: Econometric analysis, Employment, Estimation techniques, Labor, Migration, Population and demographics, Production, Total factor productivity",
    "Keywords: dynamic gains, Employment, Estimation techniques, Immigration, immigration episode, immigration shock, immigration wave, Middle East, Migration, migration shock, OECD migration flow data, productivity, Total factor productivity",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023259-print-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023259-print-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023259-print-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-16T23:25:10.119Z"
}