## The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves

_IMF Working Papers, December 15, 2023_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526)

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- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526/index.json)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Philipp Engler, Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza, Galen Sher
- Published: December 15, 2023
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400261794.001

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### Methodology
- Novel approach combining analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques.
- Distinguishes impacts of immigration shocks in OECD countries from refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies.

### Key findings
- In OECD countries:
  - Large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy.
  - No evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population.
- In emerging and developing countries:
  - Analysis of large refugee flows does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country.
  - Conclusion aligns with evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.

### Implications for research and policy
- Dynamic gains from immigration in OECD contexts suggest policy frameworks should consider medium-term and short-term productivity and output benefits when assessing immigration episodes.
- The lack of clear macroeconomic effects from refugee flows into emerging and developing countries highlights the need for targeted research and policies addressing disadvantages faced by refugee immigrants.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Econometric analysis, Employment, Estimation techniques, Labor, Migration, Population and demographics, Production, Total factor productivity
- Keywords: dynamic gains, Employment, Estimation techniques, Immigration, immigration episode, immigration shock, immigration wave, Middle East, Migration, migration shock, OECD migration flow data, productivity, Total factor productivity

*Philipp Engler, Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza, and Galen Sher. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves", IMF Working Papers 2023, 259 (2023), accessed 8/19/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400261794.001*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/12/14/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-large-immigration-waves-542526_