{
  "title": "Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 15, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/03/15/climate-variability-and-worldwide-migration-empirical-evidence-and-projections-546340",
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  "summary": "We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and publication",
      "content": "- Authors: Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabio Farinosi\n- Date: March 15, 2024\n- Approach:\n  - Estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates.\n  - Control for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries.\n  - Use parameter estimates from the gravity equation to project global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows under different population and climate scenarios."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings and projections",
      "content": "- Global emigration flows are projected to increase:\n  - between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039;\n  - between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049;\n  - between 88 and 121 in 2050-59;\n  - between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069.\n- Primary attribution:\n  - Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Climate change, Environment, Migration, Natural disasters, Population and demographics, Population growth\n- Keywords: A. migration data, Climate change, climate scenario, climate variability, country-by-country emigration flow, Global, gravity equation, International Migration., Migration, Natural disasters, Population growth\n\nIMF Working Paper No. 2024/058\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/03/15/climate-variability-and-worldwide-migration-empirical-evidence-and-projections-546340"
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    "Authors: Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabio Farinosi",
    "Published: March 15, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400270772.001",
    "Authors: Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabio Farinosi",
    "Date: March 15, 2024",
    "Approach:",
    "Global emigration flows are projected to increase:",
    "Primary attribution:",
    "Subject: Climate change, Environment, Migration, Natural disasters, Population and demographics, Population growth",
    "Keywords: A. migration data, Climate change, climate scenario, climate variability, country-by-country emigration flow, Global, gravity equation, International Migration., Migration, Natural disasters, Population growth",
    "**Working Paper**"
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