## Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

_IMF Working Papers, March 15, 2024_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/03/15/climate-variability-and-worldwide-migration-empirical-evidence-and-projections-546340)

## Other formats

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabio Farinosi
- Published: March 15, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400270772.001

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### Methodology and publication
- Authors: Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabio Farinosi
- Date: March 15, 2024
- Approach:
  - Estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates.
  - Control for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries.
  - Use parameter estimates from the gravity equation to project global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows under different population and climate scenarios.

### Main findings and projections
- Global emigration flows are projected to increase:
  - between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039;
  - between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049;
  - between 88 and 121 in 2050-59;
  - between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069.
- Primary attribution:
  - Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

### Key subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Climate change, Environment, Migration, Natural disasters, Population and demographics, Population growth
- Keywords: A. migration data, Climate change, climate scenario, climate variability, country-by-country emigration flow, Global, gravity equation, International Migration., Migration, Natural disasters, Population growth

*IMF Working Paper No. 2024/058*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/03/15/climate-variability-and-worldwide-migration-empirical-evidence-and-projections-546340_