{
  "title": "How Vulnerable is Sub-Saharan Africa to Geoeconomic Fragmentation?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, April 5, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/04/05/how-vulnerable-is-sub-saharan-africa-to-geoeconomic-fragmentation-546346",
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  "summary": "This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Study focus and scope",
      "content": "- Examines potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) by quantifying potential long-term economic costs.\n- Considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world economies.\n- Disaggregates impact across SSA’s oil-rich, other resource-rich, and non-resource-rich countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and data",
      "content": "- Uses a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model.\n- Dataset includes:\n  - 136 tradable primary commodity sectors,\n  - 24 manufacturing and services sectors,\n  - 145 countries in total, of which 32 are in SSA.\n- Publication details:\n  - Pages: 27\n  - Series: Working Paper No. 2024/083\n  - Issue: 083\n  - Volume: 2024\n  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400270796.001\n  - Stock No: WPIEA2024083\n  - ISBN: 9798400270796\n  - ISSN: 1018-5941"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and projections",
      "content": "- Under a GEF scenario with curtailed trade relations:\n  - SSA could experience long-term welfare losses of approximately 4 percent of GDP.\n  - These losses are twice the losses of the rest of the world.\n- Drivers of the strong effect on SSA:\n  - Large losses concentrated in other resource-rich and non-resource-rich SSA countries.\n  - High dependence on commodity trade amplifies vulnerability.\n- Under a less severe GEF scenario (strategic decoupling):\n  - SSA countries could derive minor gains from the re-shuffling of global market supply, especially in energy products."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy-relevant implications",
      "content": "- High dependence on commodity trade makes many SSA economies particularly vulnerable to severe GEF-induced trade disruptions.\n- Less severe fragmentation (strategic decoupling) could create limited opportunities for SSA, notably in energy markets, suggesting that outcomes depend critically on the nature and severity of trade disruptions.\n- The heterogeneity across oil-rich, other resource-rich, and non-resource-rich SSA countries implies policy responses should be tailored to country-specific resource endowments and trade exposure.\n\nIMF Working Papers — Marijn A. Bolhuis, Hamza Mighri, Henry Rawlings, Ivanova Reyes, Qianqian Zhang; April 5, 2024; How Vulnerable is Sub-Saharan Africa to Geoeconomic Fragmentation?; Working Paper No. 2024/083, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400270796.001\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/04/05/how-vulnerable-is-sub-saharan-africa-to-geoeconomic-fragmentation-546346"
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    "Authors: Marijn A. Bolhuis, Hamza Mighri, Henry Rawlings, Ivanova Reyes, Qianqian Zhang",
    "Published: April 5, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400270796.001",
    "Examines potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) by quantifying potential long-term economic costs.",
    "Considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world economies.",
    "Disaggregates impact across SSA’s oil-rich, other resource-rich, and non-resource-rich countries.",
    "Uses a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model.",
    "Dataset includes:",
    "Publication details:",
    "Under a GEF scenario with curtailed trade relations:",
    "Drivers of the strong effect on SSA:",
    "Under a less severe GEF scenario (strategic decoupling):",
    "High dependence on commodity trade makes many SSA economies particularly vulnerable to severe GEF-induced trade disruptions.",
    "Less severe fragmentation (strategic decoupling) could create limited opportunities for SSA, notably in energy markets, suggesting that outcomes depend critically on the nature and severity of trade disruptions.",
    "The heterogeneity across oil-rich, other resource-rich, and non-resource-rich SSA countries implies policy responses should be tailored to country-specific resource endowments and trade exposure.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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