## Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict

_IMF Working Papers, June 7, 2024_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/06/07/adding-fuel-to-the-fire-how-weather-shocks-intensify-conflict-549951)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/06/07/adding-fuel-to-the-fire-how-weather-shocks-intensify-conflict-549951/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Sidra Rehman, Laura Jaramillo
- Published: June 7, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400277818.001

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### Research question and data
- Research question: Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world?
- Dataset and scope:
  - Georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency.
  - Coverage: 168 countries.
  - Time period: 2013 to 2022.

### Key empirical findings
- Higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists.
- Projection under a high emissions scenario:
  - By 2060, conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures.

### Implications for policy and practice
- Integrate climate resilience into peace and security efforts.
- Design climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.

### Subject areas and keywords (as stated in the source)
- Subjects: Climate change, Environment, Food security, Natural disasters, Population and demographics, Poverty.
- Keywords: climate change; conflict; conflict intensity; East Africa; Food security; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; Middle East; Natural disasters; precipitation; precipitation shock; temperature; weather shock.

*Sidra Rehman and Laura Jaramillo, "Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict", IMF Working Papers, June 7, 2024.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
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  - [Working Paper (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024112-print-pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/06/07/adding-fuel-to-the-fire-how-weather-shocks-intensify-conflict-549951_