## Productive Capacities, Economic Vulnerability and Growth Volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa

_IMF Working Papers, August 2, 2024_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Aminou Yaya
- Published: August 2, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400286308.001

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### Overview
- Title: Productive Capacities, Economic Vulnerability and Growth Volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author: Aminou Yaya
- Publication: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2024/169
- Date: August 2, 2024
- Scope: Analysis of the effects of productive capacities on the volatility of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) under significant economic vulnerability.
- Sample and period: 43 SSA countries, period 2000-2018
- Methodology: Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)

### Key findings
- Economic vulnerability contributes to growth volatility in SSA.
- The effect of economic vulnerability on growth volatility varies according to the performance of productive capacities.
- Countries with high productive capacities have greater opportunities to mitigate the effect of economic vulnerability on growth volatility.
- Specific dimensions of productive capacities—Institutions and ICT—appear to matter more than others for reducing growth volatility.

### Policy recommendations (as implied by the study results)
- Strengthen productive capacities to increase resilience to simultaneous shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, and armed conflicts.
- Prioritize improvements in Institutions and ICT as dimensions of productive capacities that can more effectively mitigate growth volatility.
- Design policies focused on building economic resilience to reduce persistent poverty and inequality by stabilizing growth.

### Methodological and topical notes
- The study emphasizes the role of simultaneous shocks (Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, multiplicity of armed conflicts) in elevating economic vulnerability for SSA countries.
- Empirical approach relies on panel estimation using GMM for the 2000-2018 period across 43 SSA countries.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/08/02/productive-capacities-economic-vulnerability-and-growth-volatility-in-sub-saharan-africa-553119_