## Fiscal Discourse and Fiscal Policy

_IMF Working Papers, September 16, 2024_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Fiscal Discourse and Fiscal Policy](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/09/12/fiscal-discourse-and-fiscal-policy-554774)

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- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/09/12/fiscal-discourse-and-fiscal-policy-554774/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Yongquan Cao, Era Dabla-Norris, Enrico Di Gregorio
- Published: September 16, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400286780.001

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### Overview
- Authors: Yongquan Cao, Era Dabla-Norris, Enrico Di Gregorio
- Publication date: September 16, 2024
- Format: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2024/194
- Scope: Analysis leveraging thousands of electoral platforms from 65 countries in the Manifesto Project to link how political parties discuss fiscal policy with fiscal outcomes.

### Key findings
- Rising pro-spending discourse:
  - Fiscal discourse has become increasingly favourable to higher government spending since at least the 1990s in advanced and emerging economies and across the political spectrum.
  - This upward trend in party discourse does not track survey trends in voter preferences, suggesting parties have played a role in shifting the focus of political campaigns to fiscal issues to win over voters.
- Conditional conservatism:
  - Fiscal discourse turns conservative under more adverse fiscal conditions, including in the aftermath of debt surges and after the adoption of fiscal rules, but only to a limited extent.
- Medium-run fiscal effects:
  - Over the medium-run, relative discourse changes in favor of government expansion and away from fiscal restraint are followed by higher fiscal deficits.
- Overall implication:
  - Together, the results suggest that adverse shifts in the supply of fiscal ideas could add to fiscal pressures over time.

### Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Emerging and frontier financial markets, Expenditure, Financial markets, Fiscal policy, Fiscal rules, Government debt management, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM)
- Keywords: Elections, Emerging and frontier financial markets, expansion discourse, Fiscal Discourse, Fiscal Policy, Fiscal rules, Global, Government debt management, IMF working paper No. 2024/194, Manifesto, survey trend, trend increase

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/09/12/fiscal-discourse-and-fiscal-policy-554774_