## Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data

_IMF Working Papers, September 20, 2024_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/09/20/rising-temperature-nuanced-effects-evidence-from-seasonal-and-sectoral-data-555127)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/09/20/rising-temperature-nuanced-effects-evidence-from-seasonal-and-sectoral-data-555127/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Ha Nguyen, Samuel Pienknagura
- Published: September 20, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289248.001

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### Summary
- Study uses quarterly temperature and sectoral value-added data for a large sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).
- Investigates seasonal (spring, summer, winter) temperature effects on growth in real value-added across sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, services.

### Key findings
- EMDEs:
  - Hotter spring and summer temperatures reduce growth in real value-added of manufacturing.
  - The reduction is most significant for agriculture.
  - A warmer winter boosts growth in real value-added (sector unspecified beyond context).
- Advanced economies (AEs):
  - A hotter spring hurts growth in real value-added of all considered sectors: services, manufacturing, and agriculture.
- General patterns for both country groups:
  - The negative effect of a hotter spring is larger and more persistent than the positive effect of a warmer winter.
- Temporal development:
  - The adverse impacts of hotter temperatures in advanced economies have accentuated in recent decades, suggesting increased vulnerability to rising temperatures.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Agricultural sector, Climate change, Economic sectors, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Environment, Financial markets, Manufacturing
- Keywords: Agricultural sector, agriculture, climate change, economic growth, Emerging and frontier financial markets, emerging markets and developing economies, Global, IMF working paper 24/202, Manufacturing, quarterly temperature, seasonal temperature, summer temperature, temperature

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/09/20/rising-temperature-nuanced-effects-evidence-from-seasonal-and-sectoral-data-555127_