{
  "title": "Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, September 27, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/09/27/migration-into-the-eu-stocktaking-of-recent-developments-and-macroeconomic-implications-555578",
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  "summary": "Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.\n- Recent migration has helped accommodate strong labor demand while unemployment of EU citizens remained at historical lows.\n- Ukrainian refugees appear to have been absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and statistics",
      "content": "- Around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 were filled by non-EU citizens.\n- The stronger-than-expected net migration over 2020-23 into the euro area was of around 2 million workers.\n- This net migration is estimated to push up potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030—even if immigrants are assumed to be 20 percent less productive than natives.\n- The Report length: 44 pages.\n- Series/issue identification: Working Paper No. 2024/211; Issue 211.\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289552.001\n- ISBN: 9798400289552\n- ISSN: 1018-5941"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic implications and scenarios",
      "content": "- Labor market absorption: Large recent inflows supported labor demand; Ukrainian refugees in particular had faster labor market integration in many countries compared with previous refugee waves.\n- Potential output projection: Net migration of around 2 million workers over 2020-23 is estimated to increase euro area potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030.\n- Productivity assumption scenario: The 0.5 percent potential output increase is estimated under the assumption that immigrants are 20 percent less productive than natives.\n- Demographic outlook: Immigration plays an important role in attenuating the effects of Europe’s challenging demographic outlook."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and public services impacts",
      "content": "- Initial fiscal costs were incurred as a result of the large inflow.\n- Likely congestion occurred in local public services, such as schooling, in areas receiving large numbers of migrants."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Continue efforts to integrate migrants into the labor force to sustain the positive macroeconomic contribution.\n- Ensure that the supply of public services and amenities, including at the local level, keeps up with population increases to mitigate congestion and fiscal pressures.\n\nSource: Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications, Francesca Caselli, Huidan Huidan Lin, Frederik G Toscani, Jiaxiong Yao, September 27, 2024.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/09/27/migration-into-the-eu-stocktaking-of-recent-developments-and-macroeconomic-implications-555578"
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    "Authors: Francesca Caselli, Huidan Huidan Lin, Frederik G Toscani, Jiaxiong Yao",
    "Published: September 27, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289552.001",
    "Immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.",
    "Recent migration has helped accommodate strong labor demand while unemployment of EU citizens remained at historical lows.",
    "Ukrainian refugees appear to have been absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries.",
    "Around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 were filled by non-EU citizens.",
    "The stronger-than-expected net migration over 2020-23 into the euro area was of around 2 million workers.",
    "This net migration is estimated to push up potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030—even if immigrants are assumed to be 20 percent less productive than natives.",
    "The Report length: 44 pages.",
    "Series/issue identification: Working Paper No. 2024/211; Issue 211.",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289552.001",
    "ISBN: 9798400289552",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Labor market absorption: Large recent inflows supported labor demand; Ukrainian refugees in particular had faster labor market integration in many countries compared with previous refugee waves.",
    "Potential output projection: Net migration of around 2 million workers over 2020-23 is estimated to increase euro area potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030.",
    "Productivity assumption scenario: The 0.5 percent potential output increase is estimated under the assumption that immigrants are 20 percent less productive than natives.",
    "Demographic outlook: Immigration plays an important role in attenuating the effects of Europe’s challenging demographic outlook.",
    "Initial fiscal costs were incurred as a result of the large inflow.",
    "Likely congestion occurred in local public services, such as schooling, in areas receiving large numbers of migrants.",
    "Continue efforts to integrate migrants into the labor force to sustain the positive macroeconomic contribution.",
    "Ensure that the supply of public services and amenities, including at the local level, keeps up with population increases to mitigate congestion and fiscal pressures.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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