{
  "title": "IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 11, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001/index.md",
  "summary": "This paper examines the macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries from 2009 to 2022, focusing on how macroeconomic targets and their achievement differ between fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Study period: 2009 to 2022.\n- Focus: Macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries, comparing fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS.\n- Authors: Kailhao Cai, Edouard Martin, Felix J Vardy.\n- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2024/221."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Program targets for FCS and non-FCS are similar.\n- Optimism is present in all dimensions considered other than inflation.\n- No significant correlation between targets and outcomes.\n- For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes.\n- Implication: Challenges in setting realistic, country- and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries.\n- The paper does not study, and makes no claims about, causality."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Caveats and robustness considerations discussed",
      "content": "- GDP rebenchmarking.\n- Non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets.\n- Repeat programs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords (as provided)",
      "content": "- Subject: Asset and liability management, Debt reduction, Financial institutions, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Stocks, Wages.\n- Keywords: appendix H. country classification, Debt reduction, FCS classification, FCS program, Fiscal stance, fragile and conflicted-affected states, Fragility, Global, growth optimism, histogram of program approval, IMF country team, IMF program, IMF Programs, IMF working papers, IMF-supported program, Inflation, Kaihao Cai, LICs, Optimism, Pb XOXG, Stocks, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tailoring, Wages.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Kailhao Cai, Edouard Martin, Felix J Vardy",
    "Published: October 11, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289866.001",
    "Study period: 2009 to 2022.",
    "Focus: Macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries, comparing fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS.",
    "Authors: Kailhao Cai, Edouard Martin, Felix J Vardy.",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2024/221.",
    "Program targets for FCS and non-FCS are similar.",
    "Optimism is present in all dimensions considered other than inflation.",
    "No significant correlation between targets and outcomes.",
    "For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes.",
    "Implication: Challenges in setting realistic, country- and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries.",
    "The paper does not study, and makes no claims about, causality.",
    "GDP rebenchmarking.",
    "Non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets.",
    "Repeat programs.",
    "Subject: Asset and liability management, Debt reduction, Financial institutions, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Stocks, Wages.",
    "Keywords: appendix H. country classification, Debt reduction, FCS classification, FCS program, Fiscal stance, fragile and conflicted-affected states, Fragility, Global, growth optimism, histogram of program approval, IMF country team, IMF program, IMF Programs, IMF working papers, IMF-supported program, Inflation, Kaihao Cai, LICs, Optimism, Pb XOXG, Stocks, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tailoring, Wages.",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024221-print-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024221-print-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024221-print-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T00:47:58.731Z"
}