## IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States

_IMF Working Papers, October 11, 2024_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Kailhao Cai, Edouard Martin, Felix J Vardy
- Published: October 11, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289866.001

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### Overview
- Study period: 2009 to 2022.
- Focus: Macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries, comparing fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS.
- Authors: Kailhao Cai, Edouard Martin, Felix J Vardy.
- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2024/221.

### Key findings
- Program targets for FCS and non-FCS are similar.
- Optimism is present in all dimensions considered other than inflation.
- No significant correlation between targets and outcomes.
- For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes.
- Implication: Challenges in setting realistic, country- and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries.
- The paper does not study, and makes no claims about, causality.

### Caveats and robustness considerations discussed
- GDP rebenchmarking.
- Non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets.
- Repeat programs.

### Subject areas and keywords (as provided)
- Subject: Asset and liability management, Debt reduction, Financial institutions, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Stocks, Wages.
- Keywords: appendix H. country classification, Debt reduction, FCS classification, FCS program, Fiscal stance, fragile and conflicted-affected states, Fragility, Global, growth optimism, histogram of program approval, IMF country team, IMF program, IMF Programs, IMF working papers, IMF-supported program, Inflation, Kaihao Cai, LICs, Optimism, Pb XOXG, Stocks, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tailoring, Wages.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/10/11/imf-supported-programs-in-low-income-countries-fragile-versus-non-fragile-states-555001_