{
  "title": "China’s Path to Sustainable and Balanced Growth",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 15, 2024",
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  "summary": "After decades of high growth, the Chinese economy is facing headwinds from slowing productivity growth and a declining workforce that are projected to lower potential growth substantially in the longer term.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary findings",
      "content": "- After decades of high growth, the Chinese economy is facing headwinds from slowing productivity growth and a declining workforce that are projected to lower potential growth substantially in the longer term.\n- In the absence of major reforms, potential growth could slow to around 3.8 percent on average between 2025-30 and to around 2.8 percent on average over 2031-40.\n- A reform scenario combining structural reforms to lift productivity growth and rebalancing growth toward more consumption could help China transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive, and green—growth.\n- Under the reform scenario, production function and general equilibrium modelling approaches indicate potential growth could remain at around 4.3 percent between 2025-40."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Projections and key statistics",
      "content": "- Potential growth (no major reforms):\n  - around 3.8 percent on average between 2025-30\n  - around 2.8 percent on average over 2031-40\n- Potential growth (reform scenario):\n  - around 4.3 percent between 2025-40"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Reform scenario and policy emphasis",
      "content": "- Core components of the reform scenario:\n  - structural reforms to lift productivity growth\n  - rebalancing China’s growth toward more consumption\n- Intended outcomes:\n  - support transition to “high-quality” growth characterized as balanced, inclusive, and green\n  - sustain higher potential growth relative to the no-reform baseline"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Modeling approaches used:\n  - production function modeling\n  - general equilibrium modeling"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords highlighted",
      "content": "- Subject: Consumption, Global value chains, Globalization, National accounts, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity\n- Keywords: Consumption, demographic trends, General equilibrium modeling approach, Global, Global value chains, investment-led growth, Potential growth, Productivity, rebalancing, reform scenario, reforming China's economy, SOE productivity gap, Southeast Asia, structural reforms, tertiary sector, Total factor productivity\n\nDirk V Muir, Natalija Novta, and Anne Oeking. \"China’s Path to Sustainable and Balanced Growth\", IMF Working Papers 2024, 238 (November 15, 2024); DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293467.001\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/15/chinas-path-to-sustainable-and-balanced-growth-557369"
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    "Authors: Dirk V Muir, Natalija Novta, Anne Oeking",
    "Published: November 15, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293467.001",
    "After decades of high growth, the Chinese economy is facing headwinds from slowing productivity growth and a declining workforce that are projected to lower potential growth substantially in the longer term.",
    "In the absence of major reforms, potential growth could slow to around 3.8 percent on average between 2025-30 and to around 2.8 percent on average over 2031-40.",
    "A reform scenario combining structural reforms to lift productivity growth and rebalancing growth toward more consumption could help China transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive, and green—growth.",
    "Under the reform scenario, production function and general equilibrium modelling approaches indicate potential growth could remain at around 4.3 percent between 2025-40.",
    "Potential growth (no major reforms):",
    "Potential growth (reform scenario):",
    "Core components of the reform scenario:",
    "Intended outcomes:",
    "Modeling approaches used:",
    "Subject: Consumption, Global value chains, Globalization, National accounts, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity",
    "Keywords: Consumption, demographic trends, General equilibrium modeling approach, Global, Global value chains, investment-led growth, Potential growth, Productivity, rebalancing, reform scenario, reforming China's economy, SOE productivity gap, Southeast Asia, structural reforms, tertiary sector, Total factor productivity",
    "**Working Paper**"
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